Austrian Bundesliga · Sat · 17:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Ried are priced as slight favourites at 2.5, just ahead of Austria Wien at 2.85, a narrow gap that suggests no dominant side on paper.
The draw at 3.5 carries an implied probability of about 29 percent, keeping it a live outcome in this market.
The three-way market's implied probabilities sum to roughly 104 percent, reflecting normal bookmaker margin rather than a clear favourite emerging.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.87 carries a negative value edge of 6.5 percent against the model's 50 percent confidence, meaning it is not flagged as a strong value opportunity.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.2% | 8.23 |
| 1-0 | 10.2% | 9.84 |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | 11.06 |
| 0-1 | 8.2% | 12.25 |
| 2-0 | 7.6% | 13.23 |
| 1-2 | 7.3% | 13.76 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.49 and 1.20. These six scorelines cover 54% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · RIE | X | 2 · AW |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.65 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.25 | 2.70 |
| 888sport | 2.40 | 3.25 | 2.70 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.85 |
| Suprabets | 2.17 | 3.21 | 2.80 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.10 | 3.35 | 2.70 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Ried host Austria Wien in an Austrian Bundesliga clash where the bookmakers see very little to separate the two sides. The best price on Ried sits at 2.5, making them the nominal favourites, with Austria Wien priced at 2.85 and the draw at 3.5 with 1xBet. Converting those odds gives Ried an implied win probability of roughly 40 percent, Austria Wien around 35 percent, and the draw close to 29 percent, a spread that points to a genuinely open contest rather than a one-sided affair. Rather than backing a side to win, our model steers toward the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.87 with 1xBet. That price implies a breakeven probability near 53.5 percent, while the model's own confidence reading sits at 50 percent, so this is offered as a considered angle rather than a standout value play.
Verdict: The match-result market is tightly bunched, offering no clear favourite worth chasing for value. The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.87 aligns with the model's 50 percent confidence but shows a negative edge, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk selection rather than a confident value bet. Stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 15:00 | WSG Tirol v Ried | 2.60 | 3.42 | 2.53 |
| 10 Oct 17:30 | Austria Wien v Sturm Graz | 3.40 | 3.62 | 2.05 |
| 11 Oct 12:30 | Rheindorf Altach v Wolfsberger AC | 2.16 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| 11 Oct 12:30 | Hartberg v Austria Lustenau | 2.33 | 3.40 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 15:00 | LASK v Rapid Wien | 1.80 | 3.84 | 3.94 |
| 16 Oct 17:30 | Rapid Wien v Hartberg | 1.29 | 5.80 | 8.75 |
| 17 Oct 15:00 | Austria Lustenau v LASK | 8.05 | 5.30 | 1.34 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | Wolfsberger AC v WSG Tirol | 2.34 | 3.70 | 2.70 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.87, with a 50% confidence rating.
Based on best available odds, Ried are the narrow favourites at 2.5, just ahead of Austria Wien at 2.85, implying win probabilities of about 40 percent and 35 percent respectively.
The draw is priced at 3.5 with 1xBet, which implies a probability of roughly 29 percent, keeping it a realistic outcome given how close the two teams are priced.
No standard value picks cleared the threshold in the match-result market. The model instead highlights Over 2.5 goals at 1.87, though this comes with a negative 6.5 percent value edge, so it is a considered option rather than a clear value bet.
Ried vs Austria Wien takes place Sat · 17:30 in the Austrian Bundesliga.
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