Liga Profesional · Today · 17:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Boca Juniors are priced at 2.02, implying just under 50 percent win probability and clear market favouritism.
San Lorenzo's 4.43 price implies roughly 22.6 percent, the lowest of the three outcomes.
The draw at 3.02 (about 33.1 percent) sits between the two win prices, reflecting a competitive derby rather than a mismatch.
The Under 1.5 goals pick at 2.31 carries a 5.4 percent value edge against the model's 46 percent implied confidence, the only market data flags as worth attention.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 20.1% | 4.97 |
| 0-1 | 19.1% | 5.23 |
| 1-0 | 13.1% | 7.62 |
| 1-1 | 12.5% | 8.01 |
| 0-2 | 9.1% | 10.99 |
| 1-2 | 5.9% | 16.84 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.65 and 0.95. These six scorelines cover 80% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 3.10 | +7.5% | 35% | 66 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SL | X | 2 · BJ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 17.50 | 3.10 | 1.59 |
| Pinnacle | 15.17 | 2.82 | 1.56 |
| Unibet (SE) | 10.00 | 2.70 | 1.65 |
| Betsson | 12.50 | 2.55 | 1.60 |
| Nordic Bet | 12.50 | 2.55 | 1.60 |
| Winamax (DE) | 13.00 | 2.55 | 1.58 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
San Lorenzo host Boca Juniors in a Liga Profesional derby where the betting market leans clearly toward the visitors. Boca Juniors are priced at 2.02 with 1xBet, which implies a win probability of roughly 49.5 percent, making them clear favourites over San Lorenzo at 4.43 (about 22.6 percent) and the draw at 3.02 (around 33.1 percent). Those numbers suggest the market sees this as a competitive but Boca-leaning fixture, with the draw priced closer to San Lorenzo's chances than a runaway underdog price would suggest. Away from the match-result market, our model flags value in the goals market rather than the outcome market, recommending Under 1.5 goals at 2.31, a price that implies a 46 percent confidence level and shows a 5.4 percent edge over the model's own assessment of fair value. This points to an expectation of a tighter, lower-scoring derby rather than a one-sided scoreline.
Verdict: The recommended angle is Under 1.5 goals at 2.31, backed by a modest 5.4 percent value edge and 46 percent implied confidence. It is not a heavily favoured outcome, so this should be treated as a measured, moderate-risk selection rather than a high-confidence certainty, sized accordingly within a disciplined staking plan.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Platense v Newells Old Boys | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Rosario Central v Argentinos Juniors | 2.08 | 3.30 | 4.33 |
| 20 Sept 22:15 | Belgrano de Cordoba v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.48 | 4.20 | 10.50 |
| 21 Sept 00:30 | Velez Sarsfield BA v CA Tigre BA | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| 21 Sept 17:30 | Aldosivi Mar del Plata v Atlético Tucuman | 3.35 | 2.98 | 2.58 |
| 21 Sept 22:00 | Barracas Central v Independiente Rivadavia | 3.45 | 3.01 | 2.50 |
| 22 Sept 00:15 | Lanus v Estudiantes | 2.26 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| 2 Oct 22:15 | Independiente v Instituto de Córdoba | 2.46 | 3.10 | 3.25 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 1.0 goals at odds of 1.72, with a 52% confidence rating.
Boca Juniors are the market favourites at 2.02 with 1xBet, implying just under a 50 percent chance of victory, compared with San Lorenzo's 4.43 price.
The draw is available at 3.02 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 33.1 percent probability, sitting between the two teams' win prices.
No standout value picks emerged in the match-result market itself, but the model highlights Under 1.5 goals at 2.31 as a value angle, showing a 5.4 percent edge and 46 percent implied confidence.
San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors takes place Today · 17:45 in the Liga Profesional.
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