Primeira Liga · Today · 17:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Braga are priced at 1.92, implying roughly a 52% chance of victory, the shortest price on offer for this fixture.
Santa Clara's best odds of 3.8 imply around a 26% win probability, positioning them as the clear underdogs on paper.
The draw is priced at 3.13, translating to about a 32% implied probability, not far behind Santa Clara's own chances.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.55 carries a 59% implied confidence level from the model but shows a negative value edge of -8.22%, meaning it is not flagged as good value against the market price.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.0% | 7.67 |
| 0-1 | 11.8% | 8.51 |
| 1-0 | 10.2% | 9.81 |
| 0-0 | 9.2% | 10.88 |
| 1-2 | 8.3% | 12.00 |
| 0-2 | 7.5% | 13.32 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.11 and 1.28. These six scorelines cover 60% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Santa Clara's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SC | X | 2 · BRA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 22.00 | 1.10 | 15.50 |
| Winamax (FR) | 34.00 | 1.03 | 30.00 |
| Coolbet | 22.00 | 1.06 | 20.00 |
| Winamax (DE) | 34.00 | 1.02 | 30.00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 29.00 | 1.02 | 25.00 |
| Tipico | 30.00 | 1.01 | 30.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Braga head to Santa Clara as clear favourites in this Primeira Liga fixture, with the best available price of 1.92 implying a win probability of roughly 52%. Santa Clara, at 3.8, are priced at around 26% by the market, while the draw at 3.13 sits close to 32% implied probability, showing bookmakers see this as a competitive but Braga-leaning contest. Rather than focusing on the match-result market, our model's recommended angle is a goals-based bet: Under 2.5 goals at 1.55, reflecting a 59% implied confidence level from the data. Interestingly, this pick carries a negative value edge of -8.22%, meaning the model does not see it as offering value against the current market price, even though the underlying probability estimate is reasonably high. Bettors weighing this fixture should look at both the win-draw-loss prices and the goals market before deciding where any stake might go.
Verdict: The Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.55 reflects a fairly high model confidence of 59%, but its negative value edge suggests the market price does not currently favour this angle. It is a plausible low-to-moderate risk selection, though not one backed by a clear pricing advantage.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:01 | Estoril v Casa Pia | 100.00 | 7.50 | 4.82 |
| 20 Sept 19:30 | FC Porto v Benfica | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.64 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +13 | 18 |
| 2 | SL Benfica | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +17 | 16 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +9 | 15 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +7 | 15 |
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 11 |
| 6 | Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 7 | Acad. Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Amadora | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Marítimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 | Vitória SC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | CD Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Estoril Praia | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -14 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Draw (X) at odds of 1.38, with a 88% confidence rating.
Braga are the favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.92 compared to Santa Clara's 3.8, implying roughly a 52% versus 26% win probability.
The best available draw price is 3.13, which corresponds to an implied probability of around 32%.
No value picks above the site's threshold were identified for the match-result market. The model instead highlights Under 2.5 goals at 1.55, though this comes with a negative value edge of -8.22%, meaning it is not shown as a market-beating price.
Santa Clara vs Braga takes place Today · 17:00 in the Primeira Liga.
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