English ⚽ Primeira Liga 🕒 10 Aug 2026
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
1.75
LostResult
2-2Final score
-1.00uProfit
59%Pre-match conf.
0%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Coolbet
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Santa Clara are favourites at 1.95, implying about a 51% chance, while Nacional at 4.08 sit near 25%.
02
The draw is priced at 3.5, roughly a 29% implied probability, reflecting a competitive but hosts-leaning contest.
03
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.2 carries a market-implied confidence of around 43%.
04
This selection shows a negative value edge of -4.74%, meaning the price offers no edge over the market.
Team form
SC Santa Clara WWDWW
13 Sept 26 @ Arouca 2-1
6 Sept 26 vs Rio Ave 4-0
29 Aug 26 @ Alverca 1-1
23 Aug 26 vs Famalicão 1-0
15 Aug 26 @ Acad. Viseu 1-0
NAC Nacional LLLLL
19 Sept 26 vs Famalicão 0-4
12 Sept 26 vs Alverca 1-3
5 Sept 26 @ Sporting CP 0-2
30 Aug 26 vs Amadora 2-3
23 Aug 26 @ Vitória SC 0-1
Head-to-head: Santa Clara v Nacional
Full H2H history → D 10 Aug 26
Santa Clara 2-2 CD NacionalPrimeira Liga
W 11 May 26
Santa Clara 2-0 CD NacionalPrimeira Liga
D 11 Jan 26
CD Nacional 3-3 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
W/D/L shown from Santa Clara's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Santa Clara vs Nacional: pre-match preview
Santa Clara host Nacional in this Primeira Liga fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. At a best price of 1.95 with Coolbet, Santa Clara are priced as home favourites, implying roughly a 51% chance of victory before margin. Nacional are the clear outsiders at 4.08 with Pinnacle, translating to around a 25% implied probability, while the draw sits at 3.5, or about 29%. Those numbers point to a game the bookmakers see as tilted towards the hosts, but far from a foregone conclusion given the meaningful chances still attached to a Nacional win or a stalemate. Our model's attention here is not on the result but on the goals market: Over 2.5 goals is available at 2.2 with William Hill, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 43%. Note that this selection shows a negative value edge, so it warrants a cautious approach.
Verdict: The model flags Over 2.5 goals at 2.2, but with an implied confidence near 43% and a negative value edge of -4.74%, this is a marginal call rather than a standout play. Treat it as higher risk, stake responsibly, and only back it if the goals angle suits you.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 2-2, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
L 10 Aug 26
Under 2.0 goalsfinal score 2-2
1.92 -1.00u Upcoming Primeira Liga fixtures
All Primeira Liga tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:00 | Santa Clara v Braga | 34.00 | 1.38 | 30.00 |
| 20 Sept 17:01 | Estoril v Casa Pia | 100.00 | 7.50 | 4.82 |
| 20 Sept 19:30 | FC Porto v Benfica | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.64 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Primeira Liga standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +13 | 18 |
| 2 | SL Benfica | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +17 | 16 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +9 | 15 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +7 | 15 |
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 11 |
| 6 | Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 7 | Acad. Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Amadora | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Marítimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 | Vitória SC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | CD Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Estoril Praia | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -14 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Santa Clara vs Nacional?+
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.75.
Who is the favourite for Santa Clara vs Nacional?+
Santa Clara are the favourites at a best price of 1.95 with Coolbet, implying roughly a 51% chance. Nacional are outsiders at 4.08, around 25%.
What are the odds on the draw?+
The draw is priced at 3.5 with Coolbet, which equates to an implied probability of about 29%.
Is there value in the recommended bet?+
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.2 shows a negative value edge of -4.74%, so there is no clear value against the market. It is a marginal selection to approach with caution.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 2-2 (-1.00u at flat stakes).