English ⚽ Brasileirão 🕒 23 Aug 2026
Our tip
Over 2.5 goals
Odds
2.04
LostResult
1-1Final score
-1.00uProfit
51%Pre-match conf.
+2.51%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Unibet (SE)
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Santos are favourites at 2.12 (around 47% implied), while Mirassol at 3.6 sit near 28%, a meaningful price gap in the hosts' favour.
02
The draw is priced at 3.46, roughly 29% implied, close enough to the away price to suggest a tight, uncertain outcome.
03
Our recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.78 carries about 54% market-implied confidence but a negative value edge of -4.08%, so it does not beat the market on price.
04
No value picks cleared our threshold for this fixture, indicating the prices broadly reflect fair probabilities.
Team form
SAN Santos WWWWD
19 Sept 26 @ Clube do Remo 2-1
13 Sept 26 vs Cruzeiro 2-1
6 Sept 26 @ Internacional 3-2
30 Aug 26 @ Corinthians 1-0
23 Aug 26 vs Mirassol 1-1
MIR Mirassol WDWLD
19 Sept 26 vs Botafogo 2-0
13 Sept 26 vs Vitória 2-2
6 Sept 26 @ Coritiba 2-1
2 Sept 26 @ Flamengo 0-2
30 Aug 26 vs Palmeiras 1-1
Head-to-head: Santos v Mirassol
Full H2H history → D 23 Aug 26
Santos 1-1 MirassolBrasileirão
D 11 Mar 26
Mirassol 2-2 SantosBrasileirão
D 20 Nov 25
Santos 1-1 MirassolBrasileirão
L 19 Jul 25
Mirassol 3-0 SantosBrasileirão
W/D/L shown from Santos's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Santos vs Mirassol: pre-match preview
Santos welcome Mirassol in this Brasileirão fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about who holds home-field advantage. At a best price of 2.12, Santos are the favourites, with the odds implying roughly a 47% chance of victory. Mirassol, priced at 3.6, sit as clear underdogs at around 28% implied probability, while the draw is available at 3.46, translating to close to 29%. Those numbers point to a contest the bookmakers see as tilted toward the hosts but far from settled. Rather than backing the match result, our model looks at the goals market and leans toward Under 2.5 goals at 1.78, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 54%. Worth noting: this selection shows a negative value edge of -4.08%, meaning the price does not offer an advantage over the true odds by our estimate. Read on for the key numbers before deciding whether it fits your approach.
Verdict: The model highlights Under 2.5 goals at 1.78 as its preferred angle, with around 54% implied confidence. Be aware the value edge is negative at -4.08%, so this is not a priced advantage. Treat it as a modest lean rather than a strong recommendation, and stake responsibly.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 1-1, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Brasileirão fixtures
All Brasileirão tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Vitoria v Cruzeiro | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Corinthians v Fluminense | 2.30 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 21:30 | Flamengo v Bragantino-SP | 1.39 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| 20 Sept 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Bahia | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Bragantino-SP v Mirassol | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Grêmio | 2.63 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Internacional v Corinthians | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| 7 Oct 23:00 | Vitoria v Chapecoense | 1.62 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Santos vs Mirassol?+
Our tip was Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.04.
Who is the favourite for Santos vs Mirassol?+
Santos are the favourites at a best price of 2.12, which implies roughly a 47% chance of winning. Mirassol are the underdogs at 3.6, around 28% implied.
What are the odds on the draw?+
The draw is available at 3.46 with 1xBet, equating to an implied probability of about 29%. That is close to the away price, reflecting a fairly open outcome.
Is there any value in this match?+
By our model, no selection cleared the value threshold. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.78 actually shows a negative edge of -4.08%, so there is no clear pricing advantage here.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 1-1 (-1.00u at flat stakes).