English ⚽ Eliteserien 🕒 18 Sept 2026
Our tip
Under 3.5 goals
Odds
1.63
LostResult
1-3Final score
-1.00uProfit
63%Pre-match conf.
+5.16%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at LeoVegas (SE)
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Sarpsborg FK are strong favourites at 1.66, implying close to a 60 percent win probability.
02
KFUM are outsiders at 4.8, implying roughly 21 percent, with the draw at 4.32 implying about 23 percent.
03
No side of the match-result market clears our value threshold, so no straight win/draw/win pick is flagged.
04
The Under 3.5 goals selection at 1.63 carries a 63 percent modelled confidence and a 3.4 percent edge over market pricing, the standout data point from this fixture.
Team form
SF Sarpsborg FK LDDDL
18 Sept 26 vs KFUM 1-3
13 Sept 26 @ Fredrikstad FK 1-1
6 Sept 26 vs Vålerenga 2-2
30 Aug 26 @ Tromso 0-0
16 Aug 26 vs Sandefjord 1-2
KFU KFUM WWLLD
18 Sept 26 @ Sarpsborg FK 3-1
13 Sept 26 vs Aalesund 2-1
6 Sept 26 @ Molde 0-2
30 Aug 26 @ IK Start 1-4
15 Aug 26 vs Lillestrom 1-1
Head-to-head: Sarpsborg FK v KFUM
L 18 Sept 26
Sarpsborg FK 1-3 KFUMEliteserien
W/D/L shown from Sarpsborg FK's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Sarpsborg FK vs KFUM: pre-match preview
Sarpsborg FK host KFUM in an Eliteserien fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the favourite. Sarpsborg are priced at 1.66 with 1xBet, which implies a win probability of roughly 60 percent, while KFUM sit out at 4.8 with LeoVegas (SE), translating to just under 21 percent. The draw, best backed at 4.32 with 1xBet, is seen as the least likely single outcome at around 23 percent. Rather than lean on the match-result market, our model points to the game's overall goal tally, recommending Under 3.5 goals at 1.63 with LeoVegas (SE). That price carries a modelled confidence of 63 percent and a value edge of 3.4 percent against market consensus, making it the more statistically interesting angle on this contest for Eliteserien bettors.
Verdict: The data favours Sarpsborg on paper, but the clearest statistical edge lies in the goals market. Under 3.5 goals at 1.63 offers a modest 3.4 percent value edge with 63 percent confidence, a reasonable but not risk-free selection worth sizing sensibly within a balanced betting bankroll.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 1-3, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
W 18 Sept 26
Under 4.5 goalsfinal score 1-3
1.65 +0.65u Upcoming Eliteserien fixtures
All Eliteserien tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:16 | SK Brann v Bodø/Glimt | 2.18 | 2.88 | 7.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Sarpsborg FK vs KFUM?+
Our tip was Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.63.
Who are the favourites in Sarpsborg FK vs KFUM?+
Sarpsborg FK are clear favourites, priced at 1.66, which implies about a 60 percent chance of victory according to the market.
What is the draw priced at in this Eliteserien match?+
The draw is available at 4.32 with 1xBet, implying an approximate 23 percent probability.
Is there value in this fixture according to the data?+
No match-result selection clears the value threshold, but the model flags Under 3.5 goals at 1.63 as carrying a 3.4 percent edge with 63 percent confidence, making it the recommended angle rather than backing a win outcome.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 1-3 (-1.00u at flat stakes).