Serie A · Sun · 16:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Milan's 1.89 price implies roughly 53% win probability, the clearest signal in the market
Sassuolo's 4.65 odds (about 21.5% implied) make them outsiders on paper
The draw at 4.04 (about 25% implied) is priced closer to Sassuolo's win chance than Milan's, reflecting some competitiveness expected
The Under 2.5 goals recommendation carries a 48% implied confidence but a slightly negative value edge of -1.48%, meaning it's not a clear market mismatch
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.4% | 8.08 |
| 0-1 | 11.1% | 9.03 |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | 11.04 |
| 1-0 | 8.5% | 11.82 |
| 0-2 | 8.1% | 12.35 |
| 0-0 | 7.6% | 13.21 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.12 and 1.46. These six scorelines cover 57% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Sassuolo's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SAS | X | 2 · AM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.58 | 3.93 | 1.84 |
| Unibet (SE) | 4.40 | 3.65 | 1.85 |
| Unibet (NL) | 4.40 | 3.65 | 1.85 |
| Marathon Bet | 4.45 | 3.82 | 1.79 |
| Codere (IT) | 4.40 | 3.75 | 1.80 |
| Betsson | 4.50 | 3.65 | 1.80 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Sassuolo host AC Milan in Serie A with the market clearly leaning toward the visitors. Milan's best price of 1.89 implies a win probability of roughly 53%, making them strong favourites, while Sassuolo's 4.65 corresponds to about 21.5% and the draw at 4.04 sits near 25%. That gap suggests bookmakers expect Milan to control large stretches of the game, though the draw remains a live outcome given its relatively short price. Away from the match-result market, our model points to Under 2.5 goals at 2.07, implying a 48% chance of a low-scoring affair. It's not flagged as a standout value play - the edge is marginally negative - but it fits a game where the favourite may be expected to win by controlling tempo rather than through an open, high-scoring contest.
Verdict: The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 2.07 reflects a roughly coin-flip proposition with a small negative edge against the market price, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk selection rather than a confident value bet. Milan's favourite status in the match-result market doesn't automatically translate to goals, so stake sizing and bankroll discipline are worth keeping in mind.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | AC Milan v Lecce | 1.26 | 6.60 | 16.00 |
| 10 Oct 13:00 | Genoa v Fiorentina | 3.25 | 3.48 | 2.45 |
| 10 Oct 16:00 | Inter Milan v Parma | 1.14 | 10.60 | 22.00 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Napoli v Frosinone | 1.49 | 4.94 | 7.50 |
| 11 Oct 10:30 | Como v AS Roma | 2.64 | 3.67 | 2.88 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lecce v Bologna | 4.21 | 3.50 | 2.08 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lazio v Monza | 1.77 | 3.81 | 5.40 |
| 11 Oct 18:45 | Cagliari v Juventus | 6.50 | 4.25 | 1.62 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +11 | 13 |
| 2 | Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 6 | Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | Milan | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 9 | Napoli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Sassuolo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Lecce | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Udinese | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Torino | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Parma | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.07, with a 48% confidence rating.
AC Milan are clear favourites at 1.89, implying about a 53% win probability, compared with Sassuolo's 4.65 (around 21.5%) and the draw at 4.04 (about 25%).
The best available draw price is 4.04, which implies roughly a 25% chance according to the market.
No selection in the match-result market clears our value threshold. The recommended angle is Under 2.5 goals at 2.07, though it carries a slightly negative value edge of -1.48% rather than a clear market inefficiency.
Sassuolo vs AC Milan takes place Sun · 16:00 in the Serie A.
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