La Liga 2 · Sun · 16:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Eibar's 2.06 price implies close to a 49% win chance, making them the market's clear favourite over Las Palmas' 23% implied chance at 4.28.
The draw at 3.4 implies roughly 29% probability, sitting between the two win outcomes and reflecting a competitive but home-leaning contest.
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation at 2.16 carries a -3.63% value edge, indicating the model sees it as slightly overpriced relative to its own 45% confidence figure rather than a genuine market inefficiency.
No value picks cleared the site's threshold against market consensus, suggesting the current odds broadly align with model expectations across this fixture.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.3% | 7.50 |
| 1-1 | 13.3% | 7.51 |
| 0-0 | 11.2% | 8.96 |
| 0-1 | 11.2% | 8.97 |
| 2-0 | 8.0% | 12.56 |
| 2-1 | 8.0% | 12.58 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.19 and 1.00. These six scorelines cover 65% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SE | X | 2 · LP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.06 | 3.15 | 4.17 |
| Pinnacle | 1.99 | 3.17 | 4.28 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.06 | 3.40 | 3.55 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.06 | 3.40 | 3.55 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.95 | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Betsson | 1.95 | 3.00 | 4.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Eibar host Las Palmas in a La Liga 2 clash where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Best available odds of 2.06 for SD Eibar imply a win probability of roughly 49%, while Las Palmas at 4.28 suggests around 23%, with the draw priced at 3.4 for an implied 29%. That gap points to Eibar being the stronger fancy without being an overwhelming banker. Away from the result market, our model flags Over 2.5 goals at 2.16 as the recommended angle, carrying a model confidence of 45% and a value edge of -3.63%, meaning the model rates it slightly below the bookmaker's implied fair value rather than as a clear edge play. There is no standout value pick versus market consensus this time, so this preview focuses on interpreting the raw pricing structure across both the match-result and goals markets for bettors weighing up SD Eibar vs Las Palmas.
Verdict: The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.16 reflects moderate model confidence of 45% but a negative value edge of -3.63%, so it should be treated as a speculative option rather than a confident selection. Bettors considering it should size stakes conservatively and view Eibar's market favouritism as the more clearly signalled outcome.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Leganés v Granada CF | 2.20 | 3.25 | 4.20 |
| 25 Sept 18:30 | Girona FC v Albacete | 1.58 | 4.54 | 5.75 |
| 26 Sept 12:00 | AD Ceuta FC v Real Sociedad B | 2.30 | 3.67 | 3.05 |
| 26 Sept 14:15 | Granada CF v Andorra CF | 2.32 | 3.35 | 3.00 |
| 26 Sept 16:30 | Celta Fortuna v Sabadell FC | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.28 |
| 26 Sept 16:30 | Tenerife v Cádiz CF | 1.82 | 3.63 | 5.50 |
| 27 Sept 12:00 | Real Valladolid CF v Córdoba | 2.33 | 3.57 | 3.18 |
| 27 Sept 14:15 | Mallorca v Almería | 2.07 | 3.51 | 3.99 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.16, with a 45% confidence rating.
SD Eibar are the market favourites, priced at 2.06 for a home win, which implies close to a 49% chance according to the odds, compared with about 23% for Las Palmas at 4.28.
The draw is available at 3.4, implying roughly a 29% probability based on current best odds.
No selections cleared the site's value threshold against market consensus for this fixture. The model does highlight Over 2.5 goals at 2.16, but with a slightly negative value edge of -3.63%, so it is not flagged as strong value.
SD Eibar vs Las Palmas takes place Sun · 16:30 in the La Liga 2.
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