Champions League · Wed · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Shakhtar (2.7) and AEK Athens (2.8) are priced within a tenth of a point of each other, showing the market views this as close to a coin-flip contest
The draw at 3.6 implies roughly 28% probability, noticeably lower than either team's win chance, suggesting bookmakers lean toward a decisive result
No match-result selection meets our value-edge threshold, meaning none of the three outcomes stand out as mispriced against the model's own probabilities
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation at 1.87 (53% implied) carries a slightly negative value edge of -1.53%, indicating it is close to fair value rather than a clear market inefficiency
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SD | X | 2 · AA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.71 | 3.58 | 2.72 |
| Coolbet | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.65 |
| Betfair | 2.58 | 3.60 | 2.66 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.64 | 3.48 | 2.65 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Shakhtar Donetsk and AEK Athens meet in a tightly priced Champions League fixture where the bookmakers see very little separating the two sides. Shakhtar are marginal favourites at 2.7 with Betsson, implying a win probability of roughly 37%, while AEK are priced at 2.8 with Unibet (SE), putting their implied chance at around 36%. The draw sits at 3.6 with 1xBet, implying about 28%, making it the least likely outcome according to the market. With the head-to-head market this balanced, our model steers away from picking a winner and instead points to the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 at 1.87, which carries an implied probability near 53%. No side of the match-result market currently clears our value threshold, so this fixture is best approached through the total-goals angle rather than backing either team outright.
Verdict: With the match-result market essentially a three-way toss-up and no outright value detected there, the Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.87 is the more actionable angle, though its slightly negative edge means it should be treated as a fair-value, moderate-confidence selection rather than a standout opportunity.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 16:45 | RC Lens v Sporting Lisbon | 2.47 | 3.95 | 2.86 |
| 13 Oct 16:45 | Sabah FK v Slavia Praha | 3.72 | 4.00 | 2.06 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Arsenal v Lille | 1.33 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Inter Milan v Club Brugge | 1.32 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Villarreal v Napoli | 2.42 | 3.75 | 3.12 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | RB Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven | 2.08 | 4.30 | 3.40 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Viking FK v Bayern Munich | 26.00 | 14.70 | 1.12 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Atlético Madrid v Manchester United | 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.97 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSG | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 | Bayern | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 3 | Barça | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 4 | Man United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 5 | Como 1907 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 | Sporting CP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | RC Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 | PAE AEK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Shaktar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | PSV | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Club Brugge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Lille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Atleti | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Inter | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | LASK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | Galatasaray | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Viking | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | Porto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | Sabah FK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Sl. Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodø/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.90, with a 52% confidence rating.
Shakhtar Donetsk are marginal favourites at 2.7, just ahead of AEK Athens at 2.8, meaning the market gives Shakhtar an implied win probability of about 37% versus roughly 36% for AEK.
The draw is priced at 3.6 with 1xBet, which implies a probability of around 28%, making it the least likely of the three match-result outcomes according to the odds.
No match-result selection currently clears our value threshold. The model's recommended play is Over 2.5 goals at 1.87, though even that carries a slightly negative edge of -1.53%, so it is close to fair value rather than a clear edge.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens takes place Wed · 19:00 in the Champions League.
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