Championship · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Sheffield United are priced at 2.03 with Pinnacle, implying just under a 50% win probability and marking them favourites for this Championship meeting
The draw at 3.65 implies around 27% probability, sitting close to Lincoln City's own win probability in market terms
Lincoln City's best price of 4.0 (25% implied) is seen by the model as slightly underpriced, with a fair probability estimate of 27% producing a 6.79% edge
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation at 1.92 carries 50% implied confidence but shows a negative 4% edge, suggesting the market price is not obviously generous relative to the model's own estimate
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln City to win | 4.00 | +6.8% | 27% | 60 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SU | X | 2 · LC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Codere (IT) | 1.90 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| Pinnacle | 2.03 | 3.54 | 3.62 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.03 | 3.50 | 3.56 |
| Betsson | 2.02 | 3.50 | 3.55 |
| 1xBet | 1.99 | 3.48 | 3.58 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.97 | 3.48 | 3.58 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Sheffield United host Lincoln City in a Championship fixture where the betting market has a clear view of the likely outcome. Sheffield United's price of 2.03 with Pinnacle implies a win probability of around 49%, making them the clear favourites on paper. The draw is priced at 3.65 (about 27% implied), while Lincoln City's best available price of 4.0 corresponds to roughly 25% implied probability, though the model's own fair-value assessment puts their chances a touch higher at 27%, creating a modest value gap. Away from the match-result market, the model's headline recommendation centres on goals rather than the winner, tipping Over 2.5 at 1.92 with Pinnacle - a market where the implied confidence sits at an even 50%, though the calculated edge is slightly negative, meaning this is a closer call than the outright value pick on Lincoln City.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.92 is offered as the headline recommendation, but with a slightly negative edge and only 50% implied confidence, it should be treated as a balanced rather than clearly favourable bet. The Lincoln City price shows more statistical value, though as outsiders they remain the less probable outcome. Stake sizing should reflect this uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 19:00 | West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers | 1.55 | 4.90 | 6.80 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Swansea City v Norwich City | 2.66 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City | 2.31 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Charlton Athletic v Bristol City | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2.21 | 3.73 | 3.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City | 2.72 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Preston North End v Millwall | 2.66 | 3.40 | 2.71 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Bolton Wanderers v Stoke City | 2.80 | 3.45 | 2.74 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 10 |
| 12 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Lincoln City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston NE | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.92, with a 50% confidence rating.
Sheffield United are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.03 with Pinnacle, which implies just under a 50% chance of victory. Lincoln City, at 4.0, are priced as clear underdogs.
The draw is available at 3.65 with Codere (IT), which implies roughly a 27% probability based on the market's pricing.
The model flags Lincoln City's best price of 4.0 as offering value, estimating their fair win probability at around 27% against an implied 25%, an edge of roughly 6.79%. This does not guarantee a win, only that the price may be generous relative to the model's assessment.
Sheffield United vs Lincoln City takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Championship.
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