Championship · Sun · 11:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Southampton's 1.58 price implies around a 63% win probability, making them clear market favourites over Portsmouth.
Portsmouth's 6.2 odds imply only about 16% chance of victory, reflecting a wide gap between the two sides in the market's eyes.
The draw at 4.4 implies roughly 23% probability, a moderate but secondary outcome behind a home win.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals pick at 2.24 carries a model confidence of 42% against a market-implied 45%, giving a negative value edge of just under 5%, and no separate value picks cleared the site's threshold.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 10.4% | 9.59 |
| 1-0 | 9.9% | 10.07 |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 10.08 |
| 1-1 | 9.4% | 10.58 |
| 3-0 | 7.3% | 13.70 |
| 3-1 | 6.9% | 14.41 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.10 and 0.95. These six scorelines cover 54% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Southampton's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SOU | X | 2 · POR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Codere (IT) | 1.51 | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.56 | 4.29 | 5.46 |
| Betfair | 1.59 | 4.30 | 5.10 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.58 | 4.17 | 5.39 |
| Betsson | 1.58 | 4.15 | 5.35 |
| 1xBet | 1.55 | 4.15 | 5.40 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Southampton host Portsmouth in a Championship fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the favourite. Southampton are priced at 1.58 for the win, which implies a probability of roughly 63%, a strong figure for a domestic league match. Portsmouth, by contrast, sit out at 6.2, translating to an implied chance of around 16%, while the draw is priced at 4.4, implying roughly 23%. That spread points to a clear gap in market expectation between the two sides. Away from the match-result market, our model highlights Under 2.5 goals at 2.24 as its recommended angle, corresponding to an implied probability near 45%. The model's own confidence sits at 42%, slightly below that implied figure, and the calculated value edge is negative, so this is presented as a plausible line rather than a standout value opportunity.
Verdict: The Under 2.5 goals selection at 2.24 is offered as the model's preferred angle, though its own numbers show a slight negative edge versus the market price, meaning it is not flagged as strong value. Bettors should treat it as a reasonable, moderate-risk option rather than a confident lean, and stake accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 19:00 | West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers | 1.55 | 4.90 | 6.80 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Swansea City v Norwich City | 2.66 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City | 2.31 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Charlton Athletic v Bristol City | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2.21 | 3.73 | 3.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City | 2.72 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sheffield United v Lincoln City | 2.03 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Preston North End v Millwall | 2.66 | 3.40 | 2.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 10 |
| 12 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Lincoln City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston NE | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.24, with a 42% confidence rating.
Southampton are the clear market favourites at 1.58, implying about a 63% chance of victory, compared with Portsmouth's 6.2 price implying roughly 16%.
The draw is available at 4.4, which implies a probability of around 23%, sitting between the two teams' win chances.
No value picks cleared the site's threshold for the match-result market. The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.24 shows a slightly negative value edge of about -5%, so it should be seen as a plausible option rather than a confirmed value bet.
Southampton vs Portsmouth takes place Sun · 11:00 in the Championship.
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