League One · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Sheffield Wednesday are favourites at 2.38, implying roughly 42 percent win probability, the shortest price in the match-result market
Stevenage (2.95) and the draw (3.25) are closely matched, implying near 34 percent and 31 percent respectively, pointing to a tight contest
No match-result selection clears the value threshold versus market consensus, so no side is flagged as mispriced
The Under 2.5 goals recommendation carries 51 percent implied confidence but a negative value edge of -8.02 percent, meaning the price does not clearly exceed the model's fair estimate
| Bookmaker | 1 · STE | X | 2 · SW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL) | 2.95 | 3.25 | 2.38 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.95 | 3.25 | 2.38 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.80 | 3.15 | 2.30 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Sheffield Wednesday head to Stevenage as the clear market favourites for this League One meeting, with best odds of 2.38 implying a win probability of roughly 42 percent. Stevenage are priced at 2.95 (about 34 percent), while the draw sits at 3.25 (around 31 percent), a spread that points to a competitive match without a dominant side. None of the three match-result outcomes stand out as value against the market consensus, so this preview leans instead on the totals market. Our model's recommended angle is Under 2.5 goals at 1.81, reflecting a 51 percent confidence level from the data, though the calculated value edge is actually negative at -8.02 percent. That combination suggests a plausible low-scoring encounter on paper, but not one where the price clearly beats the model's own fair-odds estimate.
Verdict: The Under 2.5 goals price of 1.81 is the only recommendation the data supports, with roughly a coin-flip level of model confidence at 51 percent. However, its negative value edge means it is not flagged as a clear market inefficiency, so this should be treated as a moderate-risk selection rather than a standout opportunity.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Wycombe Wanderers v Reading | 2.60 | 3.70 | 2.73 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Bradford City v Barnsley | 1.78 | 3.75 | 4.30 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Milton Keynes Dons v Bromley FC | 1.68 | 3.90 | 4.70 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Doncaster Rovers v Oxford United | 2.03 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Cambridge United v Wimbledon | 1.83 | 3.70 | 4.70 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Notts County v Blackpool | 2.35 | 3.30 | 2.95 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Plymouth Argyle v Burton Albion | 1.64 | 4.05 | 5.00 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Mansfield Town v Leyton Orient | 2.10 | 3.55 | 3.30 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.81, with a 51% confidence rating.
Sheffield Wednesday are favourites at best odds of 2.38, which implies a win probability of around 42 percent, ahead of Stevenage at 2.95 (about 34 percent).
The draw is priced at 3.25 with the best available odds, which implies roughly a 31 percent chance according to the market.
No match-result selection cleared the value threshold against market consensus. The model does highlight Under 2.5 goals at 1.81, though this carries a negative calculated value edge of -8.02 percent, so it is not a strong statistical edge.
Stevenage vs Sheffield Wednesday takes place Sat · 14:00 in the League One.
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