Austrian Bundesliga · Sun · 15:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Sturm Graz are priced at 1.67 for the win, implying close to 60% probability and marking them as strong favourites over Grazer AK.
Grazer AK's 4.58 price implies roughly 22% winning probability, the lowest of the three match-result outcomes.
The draw at 3.9 carries an implied probability of about 25.6%, higher than an outright Grazer AK win according to the market.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.67 shows a model confidence of 56% but a negative value edge of -6.98%, indicating the market price is not clearly favourable relative to the model's estimate.
No match-result selections met the value threshold, so no clear market-consensus edge was identified there.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 11.6% | 8.61 |
| 2-0 | 11.2% | 8.94 |
| 1-1 | 10.3% | 9.76 |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 10.13 |
| 3-0 | 7.2% | 13.95 |
| 3-1 | 6.3% | 15.80 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.93 and 0.88. These six scorelines cover 56% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SG | X | 2 · GA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.66 | 3.90 | 4.58 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| 888sport | 1.67 | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.58 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.56 | 3.70 | 4.10 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Sturm Graz host Grazer AK in an Austrian Bundesliga derby where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. William Hill's 1.67 on a home win translates to an implied probability of roughly 60%, making Sturm Graz clear favourites, while Grazer AK's best price of 4.58 with 1xBet implies just under 22% for an away win. The draw, priced at 3.9, sits at an implied 25.6%, meaning the market rates a stalemate as more likely than a Grazer AK victory. Rather than backing the match result outright, our model flags value in the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.67, which carries a model-implied confidence of 56%. That said, the calculated edge on this selection is slightly negative, so it should be treated as a reasoned angle rather than a standout opportunity.
Verdict: The data points to Sturm Graz as heavy favourites, with the draw more likely than a Grazer AK win according to the odds. The suggested Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.67 has reasonable model confidence but a slightly negative value edge, so it carries moderate risk rather than a strong statistical advantage. Bettors should size stakes with that caveat in mind.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 15:00 | WSG Tirol v Ried | 2.60 | 3.42 | 2.53 |
| 10 Oct 17:30 | Austria Wien v Sturm Graz | 3.40 | 3.62 | 2.05 |
| 11 Oct 12:30 | Rheindorf Altach v Wolfsberger AC | 2.16 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| 11 Oct 12:30 | Hartberg v Austria Lustenau | 2.33 | 3.40 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 15:00 | LASK v Rapid Wien | 1.80 | 3.84 | 3.94 |
| 16 Oct 17:30 | Rapid Wien v Hartberg | 1.29 | 5.80 | 8.75 |
| 17 Oct 15:00 | Austria Lustenau v LASK | 8.05 | 5.30 | 1.34 |
| 17 Oct 17:30 | Ried v Austria Wien | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.67, with a 56% confidence rating.
Sturm Graz are the clear favourites, priced at 1.67 with William Hill, which implies close to a 60% chance of victory according to the market.
The draw is available at 3.9 with 1xBet, implying an approximate 25.6% probability, which is actually higher than the implied chance of a Grazer AK win.
No match-result selection met the value threshold based on the given odds. The model's recommended play is Over 2.5 goals at 1.67, though it carries a slightly negative calculated edge of -6.98%, so it should be viewed cautiously rather than as a confirmed value bet.
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK takes place Sun · 15:00 in the Austrian Bundesliga.
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