Austrian Bundesliga · kicked off 15 Aug 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Sturm Graz are the favourites at 1.98, implying about a 51% chance, while Altach at 3.63 sit near 28%.
The draw is priced at 3.60, roughly 28% implied, similar to Altach's outright chance and typical of a match with a moderate favourite.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 reflects a market-implied confidence of about 48%.
The value edge on that Under pick is negative at -5.86%, and no picks cleared our value threshold versus the market consensus.
W/D/L shown from Sturm Graz's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Sturm Graz host Rheindorf Altach in the Austrian Bundesliga, and the market leans clearly towards the home side. At a best price of 1.98, Sturm are priced as favourites, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 51%. Altach are the outsiders at 3.63, or about 28% in implied terms, while the draw is quoted at 3.60, close to a 28% chance. Those numbers point to a contest the bookmakers expect Sturm to control without treating the result as a formality. Rather than back the match outcome, our model looks to the goals market, favouring Under 2.5 goals at 1.95. That price carries a market-implied confidence of around 48%, though the calculated value edge is negative at -5.86%, so this is more of a lean than a standout opportunity. As always, treat the odds as probabilities rather than certainties in this fixture.
Verdict: The model's lean is Under 2.5 goals at 1.95, backed by roughly 48% implied confidence. With a negative value edge of -5.86% and no picks clearing the value threshold, this is a low-conviction suggestion rather than a strong edge. Stake modestly and manage your bankroll sensibly.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 1-0, for a flat-stake return of +1.12 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 15:00 | WSG Tirol v Ried | 2.60 | 3.42 | 2.53 |
| 10 Oct 17:30 | Austria Wien v Sturm Graz | 3.40 | 3.62 | 2.05 |
| 11 Oct 12:30 | Rheindorf Altach v Wolfsberger AC | 2.16 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| 11 Oct 12:30 | Hartberg v Austria Lustenau | 2.33 | 3.40 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 15:00 | LASK v Rapid Wien | 1.80 | 3.84 | 3.94 |
| 16 Oct 17:30 | Rapid Wien v Hartberg | 1.29 | 5.80 | 8.75 |
| 17 Oct 15:00 | Austria Lustenau v LASK | 8.05 | 5.30 | 1.34 |
| 17 Oct 17:30 | Ried v Austria Wien | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.12.
Sturm Graz are the favourites at a best price of 1.98, implying about a 51% chance. Altach are the outsiders at 3.63, roughly 28% in implied terms.
The draw is priced at 3.60 with Coolbet, which implies around a 28% probability.
No picks cleared our value threshold against the market consensus. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 actually shows a negative value edge of -5.86%, so it is a lean rather than a clear value bet.
The tip won — final score 1-0 (+1.12u at flat stakes).
English