Premier League · Mon · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Tottenham's 1.55 price implies roughly a 64.5 percent win probability, a strong home favourite tag over Coventry City.
Coventry's 6.27 price implies only about 16 percent, reflecting a heavy underdog status in this Premier League meeting.
The draw at 4.72 implies around 21 percent, sitting between the two win probabilities as is typical for a lopsided match-up.
The Over 2.5 goals price of 1.63 implies about 61 percent, close to but slightly above the model's 60 percent confidence, producing a modest negative value edge of -1.49 percent.
| Bookmaker | 1 · TH | X | 2 · CC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.55 | 4.67 | 6.37 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.51 | 4.55 | 6.20 |
| Tipico | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.80 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.49 | 4.30 | 5.70 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.48 | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.44 | 4.10 | 5.40 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Tottenham Hotspur host Coventry City in a Premier League fixture where the odds leave little doubt about market expectations. Spurs are priced at 1.55, which implies a win probability of roughly 64.5 percent, making them clear favourites against a Coventry side priced at 6.27, translating to an implied chance of about 16 percent. The draw sits at 4.72, or around 21 percent, rounding out a market that heavily favours the home side. Away from the match-result market, the recommended angle for this fixture is Over 2.5 goals at 1.63, which corresponds to an implied probability near 61 percent and carries the model's own confidence rating of 60 percent. The gap between those two figures produces a small negative value edge, so this is not presented as a standout market inefficiency, simply a price worth noting given the goal-market pricing around this game.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 1.63 is the highlighted angle, backed by a 60 percent model confidence, but the slightly negative value edge means it is not a clear market inefficiency. It is a reasonable, data-based option rather than a high-conviction pick, and stake sizing should reflect that limited edge.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.64, with a 60% confidence rating.
Tottenham Hotspur are strong favourites, priced at 1.55, which implies about a 64.5 percent chance of victory according to the market.
The draw is priced at 4.72, implying roughly a 21 percent probability based on the odds given.
No standout value picks were identified versus market consensus; the recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.63 actually carries a small negative value edge of -1.49 percent despite a 60 percent model confidence.
Tottenham Hotspur vs Coventry City takes place Mon · 19:00 in the Premier League.
English 
