English ⚽ Ligue 1 🕒 19 Sept 2026
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
1.93
LostResult
3-2Final score
-1.00uProfit
54%Pre-match conf.
-2.53%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at 1xBet
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Toulouse are priced at 1.87, the shortest of the three match-result outcomes, implying a win probability of roughly 53%.
02
Le Havre's best available price of 4.7 corresponds to a fair probability of about 23%, yet still carries a 9.32% edge versus market consensus, the largest value gap listed.
03
The draw at 3.78 (28% implied fair probability) also shows a positive edge of 5.62%, suggesting the stalemate outcome may be underpriced relative to the model's view.
04
The recommended bet, Under 2.5 goals at 1.93, reflects a 54% model confidence and a 4.17% edge, positioning it as the standout selection outside the win market.
Team form
TOU Toulouse WDLDL
19 Sept 26 vs Le Havre 3-2
12 Sept 26 @ Lorient 2-2
3 Sept 26 vs Lille 0-1
29 Aug 26 @ Brest 2-2
22 Aug 26 vs Olympique Lyon 0-2
LH Le Havre LDLDL
19 Sept 26 @ Toulouse 2-3
12 Sept 26 vs Angers SCO 0-0
5 Sept 26 vs Brest 1-2
29 Aug 26 @ Olympique Lyon 1-1
23 Aug 26 vs Monaco 0-1
Head-to-head: Toulouse v Le Havre
Full H2H history → W 19 Sept 26
Toulouse 3-2 Le HavreLigue 1
L 15 Feb 26
Le Havre 2-1 ToulouseLigue 1
D 2 Nov 25
Toulouse 0-0 Le HavreLigue 1
W/D/L shown from Toulouse's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Toulouse vs Le Havre: pre-match preview
Toulouse host Le Havre in a Ligue 1 fixture where the market leaves little doubt about the favourite. Toulouse's best price of 1.87 implies a win probability of roughly 53%, while Le Havre's top price of 4.7 corresponds to a fair probability near 23%, according to the value pick data. The draw sits at 3.78, translating to about 28% implied chance, a gap that suggests bookmakers see a moderately competitive but Toulouse-leaning contest. Away from the result market, our model points to Under 2.5 goals at 1.93 as the recommended angle, carrying a market-implied confidence of 54% and a value edge of 4.17%. That combination of a strong home favourite and a lean toward fewer goals frames how this fixture is being priced heading into kick-off, and bettors weighing Toulouse vs Le Havre should note both the win-market skew and the total-goals lean when deciding where any value lies.
Verdict: Toulouse are clear market favourites, but the model's preferred angle is Under 2.5 goals at 1.93, backed by a 54% confidence level and a modest 4.17% edge. This is a measured, low-margin value pick rather than a high-conviction call, so stake sizing should reflect that moderate edge and inherent match uncertainty.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 3-2, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Ligue 1 fixtures
All Ligue 1 tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | Marseille v Paris Saint Germain | 7.40 | 5.50 | 1.46 |
| 9 Oct 18:45 | RC Lens v Lyon | 2.26 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 15:15 | Lille v Le Havre | 1.48 | 4.88 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | AS Monaco v Toulouse | 1.82 | 4.11 | 4.70 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Brest v Angers | 2.00 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Lorient v Paris FC | 3.04 | 3.60 | 2.48 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans FC | 1.12 | 13.40 | 24.00 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Nice v Strasbourg | 2.29 | 3.72 | 3.23 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Ligue 1 standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Olympique Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +8 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 11 |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 | Stade Rennais | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Angers SCO | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | PSG | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Brest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | RC Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | Marseille | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Toulouse vs Le Havre?+
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.93.
Who is favourite in the Toulouse vs Le Havre match?+
Toulouse are the clear favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.87 which implies a win probability of around 53%, compared with Le Havre's much longer 4.7 price.
What is the draw priced at for this Ligue 1 fixture?+
The draw is available at 3.78, which corresponds to an implied fair probability of about 28%, and shows a 5.62% edge versus market consensus in the value pick data.
Is there value in betting on this fixture according to the model?+
The data flags Le Havre (9.32% edge) and the draw (5.62% edge) as value picks against market consensus, while the model's top recommended bet overall is Under 2.5 goals at 1.93 with a 4.17% edge.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 3-2 (-1.00u at flat stakes).