English ⚽ Ligue 1 🕒 3 Sept 2026
Our tip
Over 1.5 goals
Odds
1.68
LostResult
0-1Final score
-1.00uProfit
64%Pre-match conf.
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Coolbet
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Lille's 2.26 price implies roughly a 44% win probability, the strongest single outcome across the match-result market
02
Toulouse (3.60, about 28%) and the draw (3.50, about 29%) are priced almost identically, pointing to genuine uncertainty behind the favourite
03
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation at 2.10 carries a 47% implied confidence, close to the odds' break-even threshold
04
The calculated value edge on the Over 2.5 pick is -1.36%, indicating no meaningful statistical edge by our model's own measure
Team form
TOU Toulouse WDLDL
19 Sept 26 vs Le Havre 3-2
12 Sept 26 @ Lorient 2-2
3 Sept 26 vs Lille 0-1
29 Aug 26 @ Brest 2-2
22 Aug 26 vs Olympique Lyon 0-2
LIL Lille LWWDW
20 Sept 26 @ Nice 1-2
13 Sept 26 vs Troyes 2-0
3 Sept 26 @ Toulouse 1-0
28 Aug 26 vs PSG 2-2
23 Aug 26 @ Angers SCO 2-0
Head-to-head: Toulouse v Lille
Full H2H history → L 3 Sept 26
Toulouse 0-1 LilleLigue 1
L 12 Apr 26
Toulouse 0-4 LilleLigue 1
L 14 Sept 25
Lille 2-1 ToulouseLigue 1
W/D/L shown from Toulouse's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Toulouse vs Lille: pre-match preview
Ligue 1 action brings Toulouse and Lille together, with the betting market clearly leaning toward the visitors. Lille's best price of 2.26 with Betfair implies a win probability of roughly 44%, comfortably ahead of Toulouse at 3.60 (about 28%) and the draw at 3.50 (also around 28-29%) via 1xBet. That gap suggests bookmakers see Lille as the stronger side on the day, though the tight spacing between Toulouse and the draw shows the home side is far from dismissed. Away from the result market, our model's featured angle is Over 2.5 goals at 2.10, priced with a market-implied confidence of 47%. That figure sits close to break-even once the odds are converted, and the calculated value edge comes out slightly negative at -1.36%, meaning the price does not offer a clear statistical advantage by our metric.
Verdict: Lille are the market's clear pick on price, but the Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.10 is the only recommendation surfaced, and its own numbers show a slim negative edge rather than a proven advantage. Treat it as a moderate-risk option rather than a strong-conviction selection, and size any stake conservatively.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 0-1, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Ligue 1 fixtures
All Ligue 1 tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | Marseille v Paris Saint Germain | 7.40 | 5.50 | 1.46 |
| 9 Oct 18:45 | RC Lens v Lyon | 2.26 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 15:15 | Lille v Le Havre | 1.48 | 4.88 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | AS Monaco v Toulouse | 1.82 | 4.11 | 4.70 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Brest v Angers | 2.00 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Lorient v Paris FC | 3.04 | 3.60 | 2.48 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans FC | 1.12 | 13.40 | 24.00 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Nice v Strasbourg | 2.29 | 3.72 | 3.23 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Ligue 1 standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Olympique Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +8 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 11 |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 | Stade Rennais | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Angers SCO | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | PSG | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Brest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | RC Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | Marseille | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Toulouse vs Lille?+
Our tip was Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.68.
Who is the betting favourite for Toulouse vs Lille?+
Lille are favoured according to the odds, priced at 2.26 with Betfair, which implies roughly a 44% chance of winning compared with about 28% for Toulouse.
What is the draw priced at for this match?+
The draw is available at 3.50 with 1xBet, implying an approximate 29% probability, almost level with Toulouse's own win chance.
Is there a value bet for Toulouse vs Lille?+
No standout value picks against the match-result market are listed above threshold. The model's suggested angle is Over 2.5 goals at 2.10, but its own value edge is slightly negative at -1.36%, so it should not be viewed as a guaranteed edge.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 0-1 (-1.00u at flat stakes).