English ⚽ Bundesliga 🕒 5 Sept 2026
Our tip
Under 3.5 goals
Odds
1.79
LostResult
2-3Final score
-1.00uProfit
58%Pre-match conf.
0%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at 1xBet
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Dortmund are marginal favourites at 2.51 (about 40% implied), with Hoffenheim close behind at 2.72 (about 37%), signalling a tight match on paper.
02
The narrow price gap between the two sides suggests the market is uncertain about a clear winner in this Bundesliga fixture.
03
The draw at 4.0 implies roughly 25%, but our model rates its fair probability at 26%, producing a value edge of about 5.85%.
04
The recommended Under 3.5 goals at 1.79 carries 58% implied confidence and a modest value edge of 3.26%, favouring a contained scoreline.
Team form
TH TSG Hoffenheim WLLLW
12 Sept 26 vs Stuttgart 2-1
5 Sept 26 vs Dortmund 2-3
29 Aug 26 @ 1. FC Köln 2-3
16 May 26 @ M'gladbach 0-4
9 May 26 vs Bremen 1-0
BD Borussia Dortmund WWWWW
19 Sept 26 @ Stuttgart 1-0
12 Sept 26 vs SC Paderborn 3-0
5 Sept 26 @ Hoffenheim 3-2
29 Aug 26 vs HSV 2-0
16 May 26 @ Bremen 2-0
Head-to-head: TSG Hoffenheim v Borussia Dortmund
Full H2H history → L 5 Sept 26
Hoffenheim 2-3 DortmundBundesliga
W 18 Apr 26
Hoffenheim 2-1 DortmundBundesliga
L 7 Dec 25
Dortmund 2-0 HoffenheimBundesliga
W/D/L shown from TSG Hoffenheim's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
TSG Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund: pre-match preview
This Bundesliga meeting between TSG Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund arrives with the market leaning only slightly toward the visitors. Dortmund are priced at 2.51 to take the win, which translates to an implied probability of around 40%, while Hoffenheim at 2.72 sit close behind at roughly 37%. That narrow gap tells you the bookmakers see this as a genuinely open contest rather than a clear mismatch. The draw is quoted at 4.0, implying about 25% before margin is stripped out. Our model's attention falls not on the outright result but on the goals market: Under 3.5 goals is available at 1.79, carrying a market-implied confidence of 58% and a small value edge of 3.26%. There is also a flagged value angle on the draw, where our fair probability of 26% points to an edge against the 4.0 price. Approach both with measured stakes given the tight pricing.
Verdict: The model's main pick is Under 3.5 goals at 1.79, backed by 58% confidence and a slim 3.26% edge. It is a moderate-risk selection reflecting an evenly priced match. The draw at 4.0 offers a secondary value angle. Keep stakes sensible, as edges this small are far from certain.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 2-3, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Bundesliga fixtures
All Bundesliga tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:30 | SC Paderborn v TSG Hoffenheim | 1.81 | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| 9 Oct 18:30 | Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen | 1.40 | 5.80 | 7.90 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Augsburg v Bayern Munich | 11.50 | 8.25 | 1.24 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Elversberg | 2.37 | 3.88 | 2.97 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV | 1.43 | 5.50 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen | 3.15 | 3.96 | 2.35 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | SC Paderborn v VfB Stuttgart | 4.90 | 4.72 | 1.68 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.58 | 5.08 | 5.34 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Bundesliga standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Bayern | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 10 |
| 3 | Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +9 | 10 |
| 4 | Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 | Mainz | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Schalke | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | HSV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 3 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for TSG Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?+
Our tip was Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.79.
Who is the favourite for Hoffenheim vs Dortmund?+
Borussia Dortmund are the slight favourites at 2.51, implying about 40%, with TSG Hoffenheim close behind at 2.72, around 37%. The margin is narrow, so the market views this as a fairly open game.
What are the draw odds for this match?+
The draw is priced at 4.0 with 1xBet, implying roughly 25%. Our model rates its fair probability slightly higher at 26%, flagging a value edge of about 5.85%.
Is there any betting value in this fixture?+
Our model identifies two angles: Under 3.5 goals at 1.79 with a 3.26% edge, and the draw at 4.0 with a 5.85% edge. Both edges are small, so treat them as measured value rather than strong signals.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 2-3 (-1.00u at flat stakes).