Bundesliga · Sat · 13:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Hoffenheim's 1.39 price implies close to a 72 percent win probability, a large gap over Hamburger SV's 8.6 (about 12 percent) and the draw at 5.8 (about 17 percent).
The scale of the price gap suggests the market sees this as a mismatch rather than a competitive fixture.
The Over 3.5 goals selection at 2.04 carries an implied probability near 49 percent, close to the model's own 48 percent confidence reading.
No side of the 1X2 market clears our value threshold, and the goals market itself shows a slight negative edge of -1.62 percent versus the model's estimate.
| Bookmaker | 1 · TH | X | 2 · HS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.43 | 5.34 | 7.80 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.39 | 5.20 | 7.60 |
| Tipico | 1.35 | 5.50 | 7.50 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.39 | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.38 | 5.02 | 7.50 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.40 | 4.55 | 7.80 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Bundesliga action sees TSG Hoffenheim host Hamburger SV, and the betting market leaves little doubt about the pecking order. Hoffenheim are priced at 1.39 for the win, translating to an implied probability of roughly 72 percent, making them heavy favourites on paper. Hamburger SV drift out to 8.6, implying just under 12 percent, while the draw sits at 5.8, around 17 percent. Those numbers point to a match the market expects Hoffenheim to control, though football odds are estimates of probability, not certainties. Away from the result market, our model flags Over 3.5 goals at 2.04 as the recommended angle, built around the expectation of a one-sided, potentially high-scoring contest rather than backing the outright winner directly.
Verdict: The recommended Over 3.5 goals at 2.04 is a moderate-risk angle rather than a strong-value play, since the model's own confidence (48 percent) sits marginally below the market's implied probability, producing a small negative edge. It fits a fixture where Hoffenheim are heavily favoured, but backing it should be sized cautiously as part of a disciplined staking approach.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:30 | SC Paderborn v TSG Hoffenheim | 1.81 | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| 9 Oct 18:30 | Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen | 1.40 | 5.80 | 7.90 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Augsburg v Bayern Munich | 11.50 | 8.25 | 1.24 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Elversberg | 2.37 | 3.88 | 2.97 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen | 3.15 | 3.96 | 2.35 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | SC Paderborn v VfB Stuttgart | 4.90 | 4.72 | 1.68 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.58 | 5.08 | 5.34 |
| 11 Oct 13:30 | 1. FC Köln v Borussia Monchengladbach | 2.04 | 4.09 | 3.58 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Bayern | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 10 |
| 3 | Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +9 | 10 |
| 4 | Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 | Mainz | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Schalke | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | HSV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 3 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.95, with a 51% confidence rating.
TSG Hoffenheim are strong favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.39, which implies close to a 72 percent chance of victory, well ahead of Hamburger SV at 8.6.
The draw is available at 5.8, implying an approximate 17 percent probability, noticeably behind Hoffenheim's implied chances but ahead of Hamburger SV's.
No 1X2 selection clears the value threshold, and even the recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.04 shows a slight negative edge of -1.62 percent, so it should be treated as a reasoned angle rather than a clear-cut value bet.
TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV takes place Sat · 13:30 in the Bundesliga.
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