Bundesliga · Sat · 13:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Union Berlin's 2.22 price implies roughly 45% winning probability, the strongest of the three match-result outcomes
Elversberg's 3.18 odds imply around 31%, positioning them as underdogs but not outsiders
The draw at 4.0 implies close to 25%, the least backed outcome by the market
The recommended Over 2.75 goals bet at 1.83 carries a -4.21% value edge, meaning the model's own confidence (52%) falls short of what the odds require to break even
| Bookmaker | 1 · UB | X | 2 · ELV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.37 | 3.88 | 2.97 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.31 | 3.78 | 2.89 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.30 | 3.65 | 2.95 |
| Pinnacle | 2.30 | 3.79 | 2.84 |
| Tipico | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.32 | 3.60 | 2.85 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Union Berlin host Elversberg in a Bundesliga fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. At 2.22 for Union Berlin, the implied probability sits at roughly 45%, well ahead of Elversberg's 3.18 price, which translates to about 31%. The draw, priced at 4.0, implies close to 25% - not negligible, but the least likely outcome according to the bookmaker's numbers. Rather than picking a side in the match-result market, our model points elsewhere: an Over 2.75 goals selection at 1.83 with Pinnacle, carrying a market-implied confidence of 52%. That figure sits below the bet's break-even threshold, giving it a negative value edge of -4.21%. In short, the market frames Union Berlin as the clear favourites, while the more interesting angle for bettors following the numbers is the goals market rather than the result itself.
Verdict: The Over 2.75 goals pick at 1.83 is the highlighted angle, but its -4.21% edge means the market price is slightly ahead of the model's fair estimate. It is not a clear-cut value bet and should be treated as moderate risk rather than a confident lean.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:30 | SC Paderborn v TSG Hoffenheim | 1.81 | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| 9 Oct 18:30 | Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen | 1.40 | 5.80 | 7.90 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Augsburg v Bayern Munich | 11.50 | 8.25 | 1.24 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV | 1.43 | 5.50 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen | 3.15 | 3.96 | 2.35 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | SC Paderborn v VfB Stuttgart | 4.90 | 4.72 | 1.68 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.58 | 5.08 | 5.34 |
| 11 Oct 13:30 | 1. FC Köln v Borussia Monchengladbach | 2.04 | 4.09 | 3.58 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Bayern | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 10 |
| 3 | Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +9 | 10 |
| 4 | Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 | Mainz | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Schalke | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | HSV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 3 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.75 goals at odds of 1.83, with a 52% confidence rating.
Union Berlin are priced at 2.22, implying roughly a 45% chance of winning, making them the clear market favourites over Elversberg at 3.18 (about 31%).
The draw is priced at 4.0 with 1xBet, which implies an approximate 25% probability, the lowest of the three match-result outcomes.
No standout value picks were identified in the match-result market. The recommended Over 2.75 goals bet at 1.83 actually shows a slightly negative edge of -4.21%, so it should be approached with caution rather than strong confidence.
Union Berlin vs Elversberg takes place Sat · 13:30 in the Bundesliga.
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