La Liga · Today · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Real Sociedad are favourites at 2.63, implying roughly 38 percent win probability, the shortest price among the three outcomes.
Valencia's 2.85 price implies about 35 percent, a gap of only a few percentage points from the favourites.
The draw at 3.6 implies close to 28 percent, underlining how tightly the market has priced this fixture.
The model rates Valencia's true win chance at 37 percent versus the market's 35 percent, producing a 6.62 percent value edge, the only pick above threshold.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.6% | 8.64 |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 11.01 |
| 1-0 | 8.9% | 11.24 |
| 1-2 | 7.5% | 13.30 |
| 0-1 | 7.4% | 13.55 |
| 2-0 | 7.0% | 14.33 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.57 and 1.30. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia to win | 3.18 | +3.9% | 33% | 60 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Valencia's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · VAL | X | 2 · RS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 3.05 | 3.45 | 2.58 |
| Betfair | 3.05 | 3.45 | 2.58 |
| Pinnacle | 2.98 | 3.37 | 2.53 |
| Coolbet | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.55 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.95 | 3.35 | 2.55 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.95 | 3.35 | 2.55 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Valencia host Real Sociedad in a La Liga fixture where the betting market sees very little separating the two sides. Real Sociedad are priced as narrow favourites at 2.63 with Pinnacle, which implies a win probability of roughly 38 percent. Valencia are available at 2.85 with 1xBet, translating to an implied chance of about 35 percent, while the draw sits at 3.6, implying around 28 percent. That spread points to a genuinely competitive contest rather than a one-sided affair. Our model flags Valencia at 2.85 as the recommended play, estimating their true winning chance at 37 percent against a market-implied 35 percent, a value edge of 6.62 percent. No other selection in this match clears our value threshold, so the home win stands as the single data-backed angle worth weighing here.
Verdict: Valencia at 2.85 is the data-supported angle, with the model seeing modest value over the market's own pricing. Real Sociedad remain marginal favourites, and the draw is realistically priced too, so this looks like a close contest rather than a high-confidence selection. Stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 19:00 | Málaga v Espanyol | 2.50 | 3.38 | 3.13 |
| 10 Oct 12:00 | Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao | 3.20 | 3.51 | 2.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:15 | Alavés v Atlético Madrid | 3.90 | 3.75 | 2.08 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Barcelona v Getafe | 1.07 | 24.00 | 55.00 |
| 10 Oct 19:00 | Real Madrid v Villarreal | 1.27 | 7.50 | 11.30 |
| 11 Oct 12:00 | Elche CF v Celta Vigo | 3.03 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| 11 Oct 14:15 | Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruña | 1.97 | 3.75 | 4.21 |
| 11 Oct 16:30 | Real Betis v CA Osasuna | 1.61 | 4.47 | 5.90 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +24 | 21 |
| 2 | Atleti | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +9 | 16 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 | Alavés | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 11 |
| 7 | Deportivo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 8 |
| 9 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 10 | Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Celta | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 | Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Real Sociedad | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 | Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Málaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.10, with a 48% confidence rating.
Real Sociedad are the market favourites at 2.63 with Pinnacle, implying roughly a 38 percent chance of winning, slightly ahead of Valencia's implied 35 percent.
The draw is priced at 3.6 with 1xBet, which implies an approximate 28 percent probability, close enough to the two match-result prices to suggest a genuinely tight game.
Our model highlights Valencia to win at 2.85 as the recommended pick, citing a 37 percent estimated win probability against the market's 35 percent implied figure, a 6.62 percent edge. No other selection in this match currently clears the value threshold.
Valencia vs Real Sociedad takes place Today · 19:00 in the La Liga.
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