English ⚽ Brasileirão 🕒 19 Sept 2026
Our tip
Over 2.5 goals
Odds
2.08
WonResult
5-0Final score
+1.08uProfit
50%Pre-match conf.
+10.05%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at 1xBet
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Vasco da Gama are priced at 1.95, implying roughly a 51% chance of victory according to the market
02
Coritiba's 4.27 price reflects only about a 23% implied win probability, the outsider tag by some distance
03
The draw at 3.54 (about 28% implied) sits between the two outright prices, a fairly standard spread for a favourite-vs-underdog match
04
The Under 2.5 goals recommendation carries a 54% model-implied confidence but a negative value edge of -4.08%, meaning it is not flagged as strong value versus market pricing
Team form
VDG Vasco da Gama WWLWL
19 Sept 26 vs Coritiba 5-0
12 Sept 26 @ Grêmio 2-1
6 Sept 26 @ Fluminense 0-1
30 Aug 26 vs Cruzeiro 3-1
23 Aug 26 @ Palmeiras 1-4
COR Coritiba LDLWW
19 Sept 26 @ Vasco da Gama 0-5
12 Sept 26 vs Paranaense 3-3
6 Sept 26 vs Mirassol 1-2
31 Aug 26 @ Clube do Remo 3-2
23 Aug 26 vs Corinthians 2-1
Head-to-head: Vasco da Gama v Coritiba
Full H2H history → W 19 Sept 26
Vasco da Gama 5-0 CoritibaBrasileirão
D 1 Apr 26
Coritiba 1-1 Vasco da GamaBrasileirão
W/D/L shown from Vasco da Gama's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba: pre-match preview
Vasco da Gama host Coritiba in Brasileirão action with the home side installed as clear favourites by the market. Vasco's best price of 1.95 with Coolbet implies a win probability of roughly 51%, while Coritiba's 4.27 with 1xBet points to just under 23%. The draw, priced at 3.54, sits at around 28% implied probability, suggesting oddsmakers see this as a fairly one-sided affair but not a formality. Away from the result market, our model flags Under 2.5 goals at 1.78 as the recommended angle, built on a projected 54% likelihood of a low-scoring match, though the calculated value edge comes in slightly negative at -4.08%, meaning it does not clear our usual value threshold. No other selections across the board met the criteria for a genuine value pick against market consensus this time.
Verdict: The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.78 is grounded in a model confidence of 54%, but its negative value edge of -4.08% means it is not a standout price versus market consensus. Treat it as a moderate-confidence, low-value angle rather than a strong recommendation, and size any stake with care.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 5-0, for a flat-stake return of +1.08 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Brasileirão fixtures
All Brasileirão tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Vitoria v Cruzeiro | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Corinthians v Fluminense | 2.30 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 21:30 | Flamengo v Bragantino-SP | 1.39 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| 20 Sept 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Bahia | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Bragantino-SP v Mirassol | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Grêmio | 2.63 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Internacional v Corinthians | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| 7 Oct 23:00 | Vitoria v Chapecoense | 1.62 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba?+
Our tip was Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.08.
Who is favourite in the Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba match?+
Vasco da Gama are the clear favourites, priced at 1.95 with Coolbet, which implies roughly a 51% chance of winning according to the market. Coritiba, at 4.27, are priced as significant underdogs at around 23% implied probability.
What is the draw priced at for this Brasileirão fixture?+
The draw is available at 3.54 with 1xBet, which corresponds to an implied probability of about 28%, sitting between the two teams' win chances.
Is there value in the Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba betting markets?+
The main value-picks screen returned nothing above the site's threshold for this fixture. The model does recommend Under 2.5 goals at 1.78 with 54% implied confidence, though its value edge is slightly negative at -4.08%, so it is not flagged as a strong value bet.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 5-0 (+1.08u at flat stakes).