Champions League · Tue · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Bayern Munich are priced at 1.14, implying an 87.7 percent win probability, making them heavy favourites in this Champions League clash.
Viking FK's 40.0 price implies just a 2.5 percent chance of victory, underlining the gap in market expectation between the two sides.
The draw at 13.2 implies roughly a 7.6 percent probability, a shorter price than Viking winning outright but still an outside possibility according to the market.
The recommended Over 4.5 Goals bet at 2.2 has an implied probability of about 45 percent, aligning with the model's own confidence but carrying a slightly negative value edge of -0.7 percent.
| Bookmaker | 1 · VF | X | 2 · BM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 21.00 | 13.50 | 1.12 |
| 1xBet | 23.00 | 14.70 | 1.10 |
| Coolbet | 22.50 | 12.00 | 1.11 |
| Codere (IT) | 19.00 | 11.00 | 1.11 |
| GTbets | 17.77 | 11.39 | 1.11 |
| Nordic Bet | 26.00 | 11.00 | 1.09 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Bayern Munich head to Norway as overwhelming favourites against Viking FK in this Champions League fixture, with the market pricing them at 1.14 for the win. That translates to an implied probability of roughly 88 percent, leaving very little room for an upset. Viking FK's price of 40.0 implies just a 2.5 percent chance, while the draw at 13.2 sits at around 7.6 percent, reflecting how one-sided the bookmakers view this contest. Given the lopsided match-result market, our model instead points toward the goals market, recommending Over 4.5 Goals at 2.2. This price implies a probability near 45 percent, closely matching our model's own confidence reading of 45 percent, though the calculated value edge is slightly negative at -0.7 percent, meaning the price offers no real edge over the model's estimate.
Verdict: With Bayern Munich priced as near-certain favourites, the match-result market offers little betting value. The Over 4.5 Goals pick at 2.2 aligns with the model's 45 percent confidence level but shows a marginal negative edge, so it should be viewed as a moderate-risk goals-market option rather than a clear value bet.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 16:45 | RC Lens v Sporting Lisbon | 2.47 | 3.95 | 2.86 |
| 13 Oct 16:45 | Sabah FK v Slavia Praha | 3.72 | 4.00 | 2.06 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Arsenal v Lille | 1.33 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Inter Milan v Club Brugge | 1.32 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Villarreal v Napoli | 2.42 | 3.75 | 3.12 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | RB Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven | 2.08 | 4.30 | 3.40 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Atlético Madrid v Manchester United | 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.97 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Galatasaray v Barcelona | 9.30 | 6.50 | 1.35 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSG | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 | Bayern | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 3 | Barça | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 4 | Man United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 5 | Como 1907 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 | Sporting CP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | RC Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 | PAE AEK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Shaktar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | PSV | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Club Brugge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Lille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Atleti | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Inter | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | LASK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | Galatasaray | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Viking | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | Porto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | Sabah FK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Sl. Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodø/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 4.5 goals at odds of 2.14, with a 46% confidence rating.
Bayern Munich are strong favourites, priced at 1.14, which implies an approximate 87.7 percent chance of winning according to the market.
The draw is available at 13.2, implying a probability of roughly 7.6 percent, the second most likely outcome behind a Bayern win.
No standout value picks were identified versus the match-result market. The model highlights Over 4.5 Goals at 2.2 as its recommended bet, but this carries a slightly negative value edge of -0.7 percent, so it should be treated as a close-to-fair-priced option rather than a clear edge.
Viking FK vs Bayern Munich takes place Tue · 19:00 in the Champions League.
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