English ⚽ La Liga 🕒 20 Sept 2026
Our tip
Over 3.0 goals
Odds
1.97
WonResult
3-1Final score
+0.97uProfit
45%Pre-match conf.
+4.23%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Pinnacle
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Villarreal are strong favourites at 1.69, implying roughly a 59% chance of victory according to the market
02
Levante are priced at 5.29, giving an implied win probability of about 19%, reflecting their underdog status
03
The draw is priced at 4.3, implying around 23% probability, a moderate but secondary outcome in this matchup
04
The Over 3.0 goals line at 1.97 shows an 11.47% value edge against a 45% model confidence, making it the standout recommendation over the match-result market
Team form
VIL Villarreal WWLLL
20 Sept 26 vs Levante 3-1
17 Sept 26 @ Málaga 3-1
14 Sept 26 vs Real Betis 1-2
5 Sept 26 vs Deportivo 2-3
28 Aug 26 @ Alavés 0-1
LEV Levante LLDWD
20 Sept 26 @ Villarreal 1-3
13 Sept 26 vs Barça 2-4
6 Sept 26 @ Málaga 0-0
29 Aug 26 vs Real Betis 5-2
24 Aug 26 @ Osasuna 0-0
Head-to-head: Villarreal v Levante
Full H2H history → W 20 Sept 26
Villarreal 3-1 LevanteLa Liga
W 2 May 26
Villarreal 5-1 LevanteLa Liga
W 18 Feb 26
Levante 0-1 VillarrealLa Liga
W/D/L shown from Villarreal's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Villarreal vs Levante: pre-match preview
Villarreal host Levante in a La Liga fixture where the market leaves little doubt about the favourite. Villarreal are priced at 1.69 with the best odds available, which implies a win probability of roughly 59%, a clear reflection of how the bookmakers view this contest. Levante, at 5.29, are seen as outsiders with an implied chance of around 19%, while the draw at 4.3 carries an implied probability near 23%. Beyond the match-result market, our model flags value on the goals side rather than the outcome itself: Over 3.0 goals is priced at 1.97 with Pinnacle, translating to an implied probability of about 51%, against a model confidence of 45% and a calculated edge of 11.47%. That gap suggests the goals market may offer more relative value than backing either side to win outright in this La Liga meeting.
Verdict: The recommended angle is Over 3.0 goals at 1.97, supported by an 11.47% edge versus a 45% model confidence, a moderate-risk proposition rather than a high-conviction one. Villarreal's strong favourite status in the match-result market is already well priced in, so the goals total offers a more balanced risk-reward profile for this La Liga fixture.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 3-1, for a flat-stake return of +0.97 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming La Liga fixtures
All La Liga tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Valencia v Real Sociedad | 3.18 | 3.45 | 2.58 |
| 9 Oct 19:00 | Málaga v Espanyol | 2.50 | 3.38 | 3.13 |
| 10 Oct 12:00 | Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao | 3.20 | 3.51 | 2.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:15 | Alavés v Atlético Madrid | 3.90 | 3.75 | 2.08 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Barcelona v Getafe | 1.07 | 24.00 | 55.00 |
| 10 Oct 19:00 | Real Madrid v Villarreal | 1.27 | 7.50 | 11.30 |
| 11 Oct 12:00 | Elche CF v Celta Vigo | 3.03 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| 11 Oct 14:15 | Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruña | 1.97 | 3.75 | 4.21 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Primera Division standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +24 | 21 |
| 2 | Atleti | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +9 | 16 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 | Alavés | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 11 |
| 7 | Deportivo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 8 |
| 9 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 10 | Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Celta | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 | Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Real Sociedad | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 | Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Málaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Villarreal vs Levante?+
Our tip was Over 3.0 goals at odds of 1.97.
Who is favourite in the Villarreal vs Levante match?+
Villarreal are the clear favourites, priced at 1.69, which implies a win probability of about 59% according to the best available odds.
What are the odds on a draw between Villarreal and Levante?+
The draw is priced at 4.3 with Winamax (DE), implying an approximate probability of 23%.
Is there value in this fixture according to the model?+
The model does not flag value in the match-result market itself, but it identifies an 11.47% edge on Over 3.0 goals at 1.97, based on a 45% implied confidence level.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 3-1 (+0.97u at flat stakes).