Champions League · Tue · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Villarreal are priced at 2.41 versus Napoli's 3.12, giving the hosts an implied win probability around 41-42% against Napoli's roughly 32%.
The draw at 3.60 implies about a 28% chance, keeping it the least likely single outcome according to the market.
The Over 2.5 goals price of 1.77 implies a 56% probability of the match producing three or more goals.
The stated value edge on the recommended Over 2.5 bet is slightly negative at -1.52%, meaning the market's own pricing is marginally more efficient than the model's estimate rather than offering a clear edge.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.2% | 8.95 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.82 |
| 1-0 | 8.5% | 11.75 |
| 1-2 | 7.3% | 13.62 |
| 2-0 | 7.0% | 14.20 |
| 0-1 | 6.8% | 14.81 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.65 and 1.31. These six scorelines cover 50% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · VIL | X | 2 · NAP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.42 | 3.56 | 3.12 |
| Coolbet | 2.40 | 3.75 | 2.90 |
| Betfair | 2.32 | 3.70 | 3.05 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.32 | 3.55 | 3.05 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.35 | 3.46 | 3.04 |
| GTbets | 2.33 | 3.49 | 3.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Villarreal host Napoli in the Champions League with the bookmakers making the Spanish side the clear favourites. Best available prices have Villarreal at 2.41, which implies a win probability of roughly 41-42%, while Napoli sit at 3.12 (about 32%) and the draw is priced at 3.60 (around 28%). That gap of nearly ten percentage points between home and away prices suggests the market sees this as a moderately one-sided contest rather than a coin toss, though Napoli's odds still leave a reasonable chance of an upset or a share of the points. Away from the result market, our model's featured angle is the goals total, with Over 2.5 goals available at 1.77, implying a 56% probability of three or more goals being scored across the 90 minutes.
Verdict: Villarreal are favourites by market pricing, but the standout angle here is Over 2.5 goals at 1.77, backed by a 56% implied probability. The slightly negative value edge means this is a reasonably-priced selection rather than a proven mispricing, so it should be treated as moderate-risk rather than a standout opportunity.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 16:45 | RC Lens v Sporting Lisbon | 2.47 | 3.95 | 2.86 |
| 13 Oct 16:45 | Sabah FK v Slavia Praha | 3.72 | 4.00 | 2.06 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Arsenal v Lille | 1.33 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Inter Milan v Club Brugge | 1.32 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | RB Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven | 2.08 | 4.30 | 3.40 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Viking FK v Bayern Munich | 26.00 | 14.70 | 1.12 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Atlético Madrid v Manchester United | 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.97 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Galatasaray v Barcelona | 9.30 | 6.50 | 1.35 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSG | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 | Bayern | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 3 | Barça | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 4 | Man United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 5 | Como 1907 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 | Sporting CP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | RC Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 | PAE AEK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Shaktar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | PSV | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Club Brugge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Lille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Atleti | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Inter | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | LASK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | Galatasaray | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Viking | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | Porto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | Sabah FK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Sl. Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodø/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.78, with a 56% confidence rating.
Villarreal are favourites at 2.41, implying roughly a 41-42% win probability, compared with Napoli at 3.12 (about 32%) and the draw at 3.60 (about 28%).
The draw is available at 3.60 with Betsson, which implies an approximate 28% probability based on the market price.
The recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.77 with a 56% implied probability, though the calculated value edge is slightly negative at -1.52%, so it is not flagged as a strong value opportunity.
Villarreal vs Napoli takes place Tue · 19:00 in the Champions League.
English 
