Brasileirão · Today · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Cruzeiro are priced as favourites at 2.56, implying roughly 39% probability, only narrowly ahead of Vitoria's 2.85 (about 35%).
The draw is priced at 3.33, implying close to 30%, keeping all three match-result outcomes within a tight range.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.2 carries a market-implied probability near 45%, against a modelled confidence of 44%, producing a small negative value edge of -4.1%.
No side of the match-result market clears the value threshold, meaning the data does not point to a clear-cut mispriced favourite or underdog.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.3% | 7.54 |
| 0-1 | 12.3% | 8.12 |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | 9.07 |
| 0-0 | 10.3% | 9.76 |
| 1-2 | 8.0% | 12.55 |
| 0-2 | 7.4% | 13.51 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.08 and 1.20. These six scorelines cover 62% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria to win | 3.30 | +3.2% | 31% | 58 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Vitoria's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · VIT | X | 2 · CRU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| Betfair | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| Pinnacle | 3.15 | 3.50 | 2.33 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.03 | 3.51 | 2.38 |
| BetAnything | 3.03 | 3.51 | 2.38 |
| 1xBet | 3.30 | 3.54 | 2.19 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Vitoria host Cruzeiro in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market sees little separation between the two sides. Cruzeiro are the nominal favourites at 2.56 with 1xBet, which implies a probability of roughly 39%, while Vitoria's price of 2.85 puts their chances at around 35%. The draw at 3.33 (about 30% implied) is not far behind either outcome, underlining how tightly matched the bookmakers consider this contest. With the three-way market this close, no single result stands out as a clear favourite pick. Instead, our model's recommendation sits in the goals market: Over 2.5 goals at 2.2, which carries an implied probability near 45% against a modelled confidence of 44%. That slim negative edge of -4.1% suggests the price is roughly in line with, or marginally against, the model's own assessment, rather than offering a standout value opportunity.
Verdict: The market treats this as a close contest with no strong favourite, so the recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 2.2. With a modelled confidence of 44% and a slightly negative edge of -4.1%, this is a moderate-conviction pick rather than a clear value bet, and stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Corinthians v Fluminense | 2.30 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 21:30 | Flamengo v Bragantino-SP | 1.39 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| 20 Sept 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Bahia | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Bragantino-SP v Mirassol | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Grêmio | 2.63 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Internacional v Corinthians | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| 7 Oct 23:00 | Vitoria v Chapecoense | 1.62 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
| 7 Oct 23:30 | Botafogo v Vasco da Gama | 2.67 | 3.35 | 2.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.85, with a 55% confidence rating.
Cruzeiro are the market favourites at odds of 2.56, implying roughly 39% probability, just ahead of Vitoria at 2.85 (about 35%).
The draw is available at 3.33 with 1xBet, which implies a probability of around 30%, keeping it competitive with both match-result outcomes.
No match-result selection clears the value threshold, and the highlighted Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.2 actually shows a slightly negative edge of -4.1%, so it is a moderate rather than a strong value play.
Vitoria vs Cruzeiro takes place Today · 19:00 in the Brasileirão.
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