Championship · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Burnley are the nominal favourites at 2.5, implying close to a 40% win probability.
Watford's 2.95 price implies roughly 34%, keeping the gap between the two sides moderate rather than one-sided.
The draw at 3.56 (about 28% implied) suggests bookmakers see a meaningful chance of a share of the points.
The recommended Under 2.5 Goals bet at 2.02 carries a -3.44% value edge, indicating it is not flagged as a strong value play despite being the model's top pick.
No additional value picks versus market consensus were identified for this fixture.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.0% | 8.32 |
| 1-0 | 10.3% | 9.67 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.83 |
| 2-0 | 7.9% | 12.59 |
| 0-1 | 7.8% | 12.79 |
| 1-2 | 7.0% | 14.31 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.54 and 1.16. These six scorelines cover 54% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · WAT | X | 2 · BUR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.94 | 3.56 | 2.33 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.75 | 3.45 | 2.50 |
| Betfair | 2.94 | 3.45 | 2.36 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.95 | 3.48 | 2.32 |
| Betsson | 2.95 | 3.45 | 2.30 |
| 1xBet | 2.89 | 3.40 | 2.33 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Watford host Burnley in a Championship fixture where the betting market leans toward the visitors without making them overwhelming favourites. Burnley are priced at 2.5 for the win, which implies a probability of roughly 40%, while Watford sit at 2.95 (about 34% implied) and the draw is offered at 3.56 (around 28%). That spread points to a fairly competitive match on paper, with no side truly dominant according to the odds. Rather than back a result, our model's recommended angle looks at the total goals market, favouring Under 2.5 Goals at 2.02, which carries a market-implied confidence of 48%. Notably, this pick shows a slight negative value edge of -3.44%, meaning the model does not see it as a clear mispricing but rather a reasonably balanced option worth noting for this Watford vs Burnley clash.
Verdict: The Under 2.5 Goals selection at 2.02 is the model's headline pick, backed by 48% implied confidence, but its negative value edge means it should be treated as a measured option rather than a standout opportunity. Bettors should weigh this alongside the closely priced match-result market and manage stakes with care.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 19:00 | West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers | 1.55 | 4.90 | 6.80 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Swansea City v Norwich City | 2.66 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City | 2.31 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Charlton Athletic v Bristol City | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2.21 | 3.73 | 3.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City | 2.72 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sheffield United v Lincoln City | 2.03 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Preston North End v Millwall | 2.66 | 3.40 | 2.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 10 |
| 12 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Lincoln City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston NE | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.02, with a 48% confidence rating.
Burnley are the market favourites at odds of 2.5, implying roughly a 40% chance of victory, compared with Watford's 2.95 (about 34%) and the draw at 3.56 (about 28%).
The best available draw price is 3.56, which implies an approximate 28% probability of the match ending level.
The model's recommended bet is Under 2.5 Goals at 2.02 with 48% implied confidence, though it carries a slightly negative value edge of -3.44%, and no other value picks exceeded the threshold for this match.
Watford vs Burnley takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Championship.
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