Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
West Brom's 1.78 price implies a win probability above 56%, the strongest signal in this market
The draw is priced at 4.0, implying roughly a 25% chance, second most likely outcome according to the odds
Charlton's 5.4 price implies around 18-19% versus a modelled fair probability of 20%, producing a 5.8% edge on the underdog
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.97 carries a 10.8% value edge and 56% model confidence, the largest edge identified in this fixture
Team form
Head-to-head: West Bromwich Albion v Charlton Athletic
Full H2H history →W/D/L shown from West Bromwich Albion's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
West Bromwich Albion vs Charlton Athletic: pre-match preview
West Bromwich Albion host Charlton Athletic in a Championship fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Best odds of 1.78 on a West Brom win imply a probability of just over 56%, making the Baggies clear favourites on home soil. Charlton, priced at 5.4, are given roughly an 18-19% chance by the same market, while the draw at 4.0 sits close to 25%. Away from the outright result, our model has flagged the Under 2.5 goals market as the standout angle, priced at 1.97 with a model-implied confidence of 56% and a value edge of 10.8%, suggesting the market may be underpricing a lower-scoring contest between these two sides. There is also a smaller value signal on the Charlton price itself, which we cover below alongside the key numbers bettors should weigh before staking.
Verdict: The data points to West Brom as strong favourites, but the clearest statistical edge lies in the Under 2.5 goals market at 1.97, backed by a 10.8% value edge. It is not a certainty, and moderate staking is sensible given the inherent uncertainty in any match outcome.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 1-1, for a flat-stake return of +0.97 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Championship fixtures
All Championship tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 19:00 | West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers | 1.55 | 4.90 | 6.80 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Swansea City v Norwich City | 2.66 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City | 2.31 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Charlton Athletic v Bristol City | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2.21 | 3.73 | 3.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City | 2.72 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sheffield United v Lincoln City | 2.03 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Preston North End v Millwall | 2.66 | 3.40 | 2.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Championship standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 10 |
| 12 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Lincoln City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston NE | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.97.
West Bromwich Albion are firm favourites according to the odds, with a best price of 1.78 implying a win probability of just over 56%.
The draw is available at 4.0, which implies a probability of roughly 25% according to the market.
Yes, the model highlights Under 2.5 goals at 1.97 as the strongest value play with a 10.8% edge, and also notes a smaller 5.8% edge on Charlton's 5.4 price to win outright.
The tip won — final score 1-1 (+0.97u at flat stakes).