Austrian Bundesliga · Sat · 15:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Ried (2.52) and WSG Tirol (2.60) are priced within a narrow band, implying probabilities of about 39.7 percent and 38.5 percent respectively - a near coin-flip match result.
The draw at 3.40 implies roughly 29.4 percent, keeping all three outcomes within realistic reach based on the odds alone.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.95 implies about 51.3 percent probability, but the model's own confidence is listed lower at 48 percent.
The value edge on the Under 2.5 pick is quoted at -6.4 percent, meaning the market data does not show a clear pricing advantage for this selection.
No side is listed as a value pick against market consensus, indicating the model does not see mispriced value in the match-result market itself.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.3% | 8.14 |
| 1-0 | 9.9% | 10.10 |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.39 |
| 0-1 | 8.6% | 11.66 |
| 1-2 | 7.6% | 13.14 |
| 2-0 | 7.1% | 14.12 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.43 and 1.24. These six scorelines cover 54% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · WT | X | 2 · RIE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.58 | 3.42 | 2.53 |
| William Hill | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| 888sport | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
| Suprabets | 2.48 | 3.20 | 2.42 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.35 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
WSG Tirol host Ried in an Austrian Bundesliga meeting where the bookmakers see very little to separate the two sides on paper. Ried's best price of 2.52 implies a probability of just under 40 percent, while WSG Tirol's 2.60 works out to roughly 38.5 percent, leaving the draw at 3.40 (about 29.4 percent) as a live outcome in the market's eyes. With the overround included, this is effectively a three-way coin toss with a slight lean toward the visitors. Away from the result market, the site's model points to the Under 2.5 goals line at 1.95 as its recommended angle, which corresponds to an implied probability near 51 percent. That figure sits close to, but not dramatically ahead of, the model's own 48 percent confidence read, so this preview treats the pick as a measured suggestion rather than a strong signal, in line with the modest value edge attached to it.
Verdict: The Under 2.5 goals selection at 1.95 is the only recommended angle here, but its negative value edge and confidence level of 48 percent suggest it is a borderline rather than compelling pick. Bettors should treat it as speculative, sized modestly, given the tight and fairly balanced match-result market surrounding it.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 17:30 | Austria Wien v Sturm Graz | 3.40 | 3.62 | 2.05 |
| 11 Oct 12:30 | Rheindorf Altach v Wolfsberger AC | 2.16 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| 11 Oct 12:30 | Hartberg v Austria Lustenau | 2.33 | 3.40 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 15:00 | LASK v Rapid Wien | 1.80 | 3.84 | 3.94 |
| 16 Oct 17:30 | Rapid Wien v Hartberg | 1.29 | 5.80 | 8.75 |
| 17 Oct 15:00 | Austria Lustenau v LASK | 8.05 | 5.30 | 1.34 |
| 17 Oct 17:30 | Ried v Austria Wien | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.85 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | Wolfsberger AC v WSG Tirol | 2.34 | 3.70 | 2.70 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.80, with a 52% confidence rating.
Neither side is a strong favourite. Ried's best odds of 2.52 imply about 39.7 percent, marginally higher than WSG Tirol's 2.60 (about 38.5 percent), making this close to an even match on the numbers.
The draw is available at 3.40, which implies a probability of roughly 29.4 percent, keeping it a realistic outcome alongside both team wins.
The match-result market shows no listed value picks above the site's threshold. The one flagged recommendation is Under 2.5 goals at 1.95, though its value edge is actually negative (-6.4 percent) and its model confidence sits at 48 percent, so it should be viewed cautiously rather than as a clear edge.
WSG Tirol vs Ried takes place Sat · 15:00 in the Austrian Bundesliga.
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