Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
D.C. United are the market favourite at 2.08 (around 48% implied), well ahead of New England at 3.41 (around 29%).
The draw is priced at 4.01, implying roughly a 25% chance of the spoils being shared.
The recommended Over 3.0 goals pick at 2.15 shows a negative value edge of about -5.69%, suggesting it is fairly to slightly under priced.
The draw is highlighted as the model's value angle, with a fair probability near 27% versus the market and a positive edge of about 9.54%.
Team form
Head-to-head: D.C. United v New England Revolution
W/D/L shown from D.C. United's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
D.C. United vs New England Revolution: pre-match preview
D.C. United host New England Revolution in this MLS clash, and the market leans towards the home side. At a best price of 2.08, D.C. United are priced as favourites, implying roughly a 48% chance of taking the three points. New England, at 3.41, are given around a 29% chance, while the draw sits at 4.01, or about 25% in implied terms. That spread points to a match the bookmakers see as tilted towards D.C. United without ruling out an away result. Our model's headline pick is Over 3.0 goals at 2.15, carrying a market-implied confidence near 44%. Worth noting, the value edge on that goals line reads negative at around -5.69%, so it looks fairly priced rather than a standout. The more interesting value signal appears on the draw, where the model flags a positive edge against the market consensus.
Verdict: The model's headline call is Over 3.0 goals at 2.15, though its negative edge marks it as fairly priced rather than a clear overlay. The draw at 4.01 carries the stronger value signal. Both remain uncertain outcomes, so size any stake sensibly and treat these as informed leans.
How it settled: the tip was voided — the match finished 0-3, for a flat-stake return of 0.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming MLS fixtures
All MLS tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 23:00 | Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC | 1.49 | 5.80 | 6.50 |
| 24 Sept 01:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City SC | 2.82 | 4.00 | 2.48 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC | 2.35 | 3.75 | 3.23 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC | 1.53 | 5.26 | 6.30 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire | 2.38 | 3.99 | 2.85 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Minnesota United FC | 2.25 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
Our tip was Under 3.0 goals at odds of 1.68.
D.C. United are the favourites at a best price of 2.08, implying roughly a 48% chance. New England Revolution are priced at 3.41, around 29%.
The draw is available at 4.01, which implies about a 25% chance. Our model rates its fair probability closer to 27%, flagging a positive value edge of around 9.54%.
The Over 3.0 goals pick is priced at 2.15 with a market-implied confidence near 44%, but its value edge is negative at about -5.69%, so it looks fairly priced rather than a strong value play.
The tip was voided — final score 0-3 (0.00u at flat stakes).