MLS · Today · 23:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Inter Miami CF are priced at 1.55, implying a win probability of about 64.5 percent, comfortably the shortest price on the board.
San Diego FC at 6.00 imply just under 17 percent, but the model's fair probability estimate of 18 percent produces a positive 6.48 percent edge on that price.
The draw at 5.13 implies roughly 19.5 percent, sitting between the two team prices and reflecting a moderately competitive scoreline expectation despite the favourite tag.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.25 carries a stated -5.05 percent value edge, meaning the model does not see it as priced favourably despite its high implied confidence of 76 percent.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 8.2% | 12.22 |
| 2-2 | 6.9% | 14.60 |
| 1-1 | 6.8% | 14.73 |
| 3-1 | 6.6% | 15.20 |
| 1-2 | 5.7% | 17.61 |
| 3-2 | 5.5% | 18.15 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.41 and 1.68. These six scorelines cover 40% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · IMC | X | 2 · SDF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.47 | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| Matchbook | 1.47 | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| 1xBet | 1.45 | 5.63 | 6.05 |
| GTbets | 1.49 | 5.43 | 5.51 |
| Pinnacle | 1.45 | 5.70 | 5.80 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.43 | 5.77 | 6.05 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Inter Miami CF host San Diego FC in an MLS fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Best available prices make Inter Miami CF strong favourites at 1.55, a price that implies a win probability of roughly 64.5 percent. San Diego FC sit at the opposite end at 6.00, translating to an implied chance of about 16.7 percent, while the draw is priced at 5.13, implying around 19.5 percent. Away from the match-result market, the site's model flags Over 2.5 goals at 1.25 as its recommended angle, carrying a market-implied confidence of 76 percent, though the stated value edge on that selection is actually negative at -5.05 percent. Separately, the data highlights San Diego FC's moneyline price as carrying a positive edge of 6.48 percent against a fair probability estimate of 18 percent, worth noting for bettors comparing options across this Inter Miami CF vs San Diego FC clash.
Verdict: The data points to Inter Miami CF as clear favourites, with San Diego FC's long price offering a modest positive edge worth a look for value-focused bettors. The model's own Over 2.5 goals pick, despite high confidence, actually carries a negative edge, so it should be treated cautiously rather than as a standout selection.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sept 01:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City SC | 2.82 | 4.00 | 2.48 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC | 2.35 | 3.75 | 3.23 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC | 1.53 | 5.26 | 6.30 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire | 2.38 | 3.99 | 2.85 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Minnesota United FC | 2.25 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Nashville SC v Toronto FC | 1.50 | 4.88 | 6.30 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.19, with a 79% confidence rating.
Inter Miami CF are the clear favourites, priced at 1.55, which implies a win probability of about 64.5 percent based on the best available odds.
The draw is available at 5.13, implying an approximate 19.5 percent chance according to the market.
The data suggests some value on San Diego FC at 6.00, with a fair probability estimate of 18 percent producing a positive edge of 6.48 percent, though the underlying win chance still favours Inter Miami CF heavily.
Inter Miami CF vs San Diego FC takes place Today · 23:00 in the MLS.
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