English ⚽ MLS 🕒 18 Sept 2026
Our tip
New York City FC to win
Odds
1.92
LostResult
0-1Final score
-1.00uProfit
54%Pre-match conf.
0%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at LeoVegas (SE)
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
New York City FC are strong market favourites at 1.88, implying roughly 53 percent win probability, well ahead of New York Red Bulls' 27 percent at 3.65.
02
The draw is priced at 4.25, implying about 24 percent, making it the least likely single outcome according to the market.
03
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 1.91 implies close to 52 percent probability, but the model's confidence is 49 percent, producing a negative value edge of -6.02 percent.
04
No additional value picks against market consensus were flagged, indicating the model sees no clear mispricing elsewhere in this fixture.
Team form
NYC New York City FC LWLDD
18 Sept 26 vs New York Red Bulls 0-1
13 Sept 26 @ Real Salt Lake 2-0
10 Sept 26 vs New England Revolution 1-2
4 Sept 26 vs Nashville SC 0-0
23 Aug 26 @ New England Revolution 1-1
NYR New York Red Bulls WWLDD
18 Sept 26 @ New York City FC 1-0
12 Sept 26 @ Columbus Crew SC 1-0
10 Sept 26 @ Los Angeles FC 0-2
6 Sept 26 @ Seattle Sounders FC 0-0
22 Aug 26 vs Chicago Fire 1-1
Head-to-head: New York City FC v New York Red Bulls
L 18 Sept 26
New York City FC 0-1 New York Red BullsMLS
W/D/L shown from New York City FC's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls: pre-match preview
New York City FC host New York Red Bulls in an MLS derby where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. At 1.88, New York City FC are priced as favourites, implying a win probability of roughly 53 percent, while New York Red Bulls at 3.65 carry an implied chance of about 27 percent. The draw sits at 4.25, translating to near 24 percent, rounding out a market that totals slightly above 100 percent once bookmaker margin is factored in. Away from the match-result market, the highlighted angle here is a goals market: Over 3.5 goals is priced at 1.91, implying just over 52 percent, though the model's own confidence reading sits a touch lower at 49 percent with a negative value edge. That combination suggests the price does not currently offer a clear market edge, so this is one to weigh carefully rather than back automatically.
Verdict: The Over 3.5 goals price of 1.91 is the only highlighted angle, but with a 49 percent model confidence against roughly 52 percent implied by the odds, the edge is negative. This is a speculative goals-market play rather than a confident value bet, and stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 0-1, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
W 18 Sept 26
Under 3.5 goalsfinal score 0-1
1.78 +0.78u Upcoming MLS fixtures
All MLS tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 23:00 | Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC | 1.49 | 5.80 | 6.50 |
| 24 Sept 01:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City SC | 2.82 | 4.00 | 2.48 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC | 2.35 | 3.75 | 3.23 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC | 1.53 | 5.26 | 6.30 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire | 2.38 | 3.99 | 2.85 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Minnesota United FC | 2.25 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls?+
Our tip was New York City FC to win at odds of 1.92.
Who is favourite between New York City FC and New York Red Bulls?+
New York City FC are the clear market favourites at odds of 1.88, implying roughly a 53 percent chance of winning, compared with about 27 percent for New York Red Bulls at 3.65.
What is the draw priced at in this MLS fixture?+
The draw is available at 4.25, which implies a probability of around 24 percent, making it the least backed outcome of the three in the match-result market.
Is there value in the Over 3.5 goals bet for this game?+
The Over 3.5 goals price of 1.91 implies about 52 percent probability, but the model's confidence is 49 percent with a value edge of -6.02 percent, meaning it is not flagged as a strong value opportunity based on current data.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 0-1 (-1.00u at flat stakes).