English ⚽ MLS 🕒 31 Jul 2026
Our tip
Under 2.75 goals
Odds
1.86
WonResult
1-1Final score
+0.86uProfit
52%Pre-match conf.
-1.06%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Pinnacle
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
NYCFC are firmly favoured at 1.77 (about 56% implied), while Toronto FC are outsiders at 5.03 (around 20%).
02
The draw is priced at 4.13, implying roughly a 24% chance of the points being shared.
03
The recommended Under 2.75 goals at 1.86 sits near a coin flip, with a market-implied confidence of about 52%.
04
The value edge on the recommended bet is negative at -3.86%, and no value picks cleared the threshold against market consensus.
Team form
NYC New York City FC LWLDD
18 Sept 26 vs New York Red Bulls 0-1
13 Sept 26 @ Real Salt Lake 2-0
10 Sept 26 vs New England Revolution 1-2
4 Sept 26 vs Nashville SC 0-0
23 Aug 26 @ New England Revolution 1-1
TF Toronto FC LLWDW
20 Sept 26 @ St. Louis City SC 1-3
12 Sept 26 @ Orlando City SC 0-3
9 Sept 26 vs Nashville SC 2-1
5 Sept 26 vs Chicago Fire 4-4
22 Aug 26 @ Inter Miami CF 2-1
Head-to-head: New York City FC v Toronto FC
D 31 Jul 26
New York City FC 1-1 Toronto FCMLS
W/D/L shown from New York City FC's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
New York City FC vs Toronto FC: pre-match preview
New York City FC host Toronto FC in this MLS fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. At a best price of 1.77, NYCFC are priced as clear home favourites, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 56%. Toronto FC, by contrast, are out at 5.03, implying only around a 20% chance of taking all three points, while the draw sits at 4.13, or about 24% in probability terms. The gap between the two sides is substantial, reflecting the market's expectation of a home win. Rather than backing the match result, our model's attention turns to the goals market, where Under 2.75 goals is available at 1.86 with Pinnacle. That carries a market-implied confidence of around 52%, though the calculated value edge is slightly negative at -3.86%, so this is a lean rather than a standout edge in this matchup.
Verdict: The lean is Under 2.75 goals at 1.86, essentially a near-even proposition at around 52% implied confidence. With a negative value edge of -3.86% and no picks clearing the value threshold, treat this as a modest, low-conviction position and stake responsibly.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 1-1, for a flat-stake return of +0.86 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
L 31 Jul 26
Over 2.75 goalsfinal score 1-1
1.98 -1.00u Upcoming MLS fixtures
All MLS tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 23:00 | Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC | 1.49 | 5.80 | 6.50 |
| 24 Sept 01:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City SC | 2.82 | 4.00 | 2.48 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC | 2.35 | 3.75 | 3.23 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC | 1.53 | 5.26 | 6.30 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire | 2.38 | 3.99 | 2.85 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Minnesota United FC | 2.25 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for New York City FC vs Toronto FC?+
Our tip was Under 2.75 goals at odds of 1.86.
Who is the favourite for New York City FC vs Toronto FC?+
New York City FC are the favourites at a best price of 1.77, implying roughly a 56% chance. Toronto FC are the outsiders at 5.03, around 20% implied.
What are the odds on the draw?+
The draw is priced at 4.13 with 1xBet, which implies approximately a 24% probability of the match ending level.
Is there any betting value in this fixture?+
No selection cleared our value threshold against market consensus. The recommended Under 2.75 goals at 1.86 actually shows a negative value edge of -3.86%, so it is a lean rather than a strong value play.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 1-1 (+0.86u at flat stakes).