English ⚽ MLS 🕒 1 Aug 2026
Our tip
Under 3.75 goals
Odds
1.83
LostResult
3-2Final score
-1.00uProfit
52%Pre-match conf.
-1.61%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Pinnacle
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
New York Red Bulls are the favourites at 2.08 (about 48% implied), with Orlando City the outsiders at 3.26 (about 31%).
02
The draw at 4.3 carries the lowest implied probability of the three, around 23%, pointing the market towards a decisive outcome.
03
The gap between the two teams is modest, so this is priced closer to a competitive contest than a mismatch.
04
Our recommended Under 3.75 goals at 1.83 shows a negative value edge of -4.21%, so it clears no value threshold despite the roughly 52% model confidence.
Team form
NYR New York Red Bulls WWLDD
18 Sept 26 @ New York City FC 1-0
12 Sept 26 @ Columbus Crew SC 1-0
10 Sept 26 @ Los Angeles FC 0-2
6 Sept 26 @ Seattle Sounders FC 0-0
22 Aug 26 vs Chicago Fire 1-1
OCS Orlando City SC LWWWW
19 Sept 26 @ New England Revolution 2-4
12 Sept 26 vs Toronto FC 3-0
9 Sept 26 @ Atlanta United FC 3-2
5 Sept 26 vs San Diego FC 1-0
22 Aug 26 vs Real Salt Lake 2-1
Head-to-head: New York Red Bulls v Orlando City SC
W 1 Aug 26
New York Red Bulls 3-2 Orlando City SCMLS
W/D/L shown from New York Red Bulls's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
New York Red Bulls vs Orlando City SC: pre-match preview
This MLS meeting between New York Red Bulls and Orlando City SC sees the home side installed as favourites. Red Bulls are priced at 2.08, which implies a market probability of roughly 48%, while Orlando City sit at 3.26, translating to about 31%. The draw is offered at 4.3, or around 23% in probability terms, suggesting the market leans towards a decisive result rather than a stalemate. These are relatively tight numbers for a home favourite, indicating the bookmakers see New York as marginally ahead rather than dominant. Our model, meanwhile, steps away from the match-result market entirely and looks to the goals line, favouring Under 3.75 goals at 1.83 with a market-implied confidence around 52%. It is worth noting the value edge on that selection reads as negative, so this preview is about understanding the pricing rather than chasing a standout overlay.
Verdict: The model's pick is Under 3.75 goals at 1.83, reflecting a lean towards a controlled, lower-scoring game rather than a match-result call. With a negative value edge, this is a modest-confidence selection rather than a strong overlay, so treat it accordingly and stake within your normal limits.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 3-2, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
W 1 Aug 26
Over 3.75 goalsfinal score 3-2
1.98 +0.98u Upcoming MLS fixtures
All MLS tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 23:00 | Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC | 1.49 | 5.80 | 6.50 |
| 24 Sept 01:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City SC | 2.82 | 4.00 | 2.48 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC | 2.35 | 3.75 | 3.23 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC | 1.53 | 5.26 | 6.30 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire | 2.38 | 3.99 | 2.85 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Minnesota United FC | 2.25 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for New York Red Bulls vs Orlando City SC?+
Our tip was Under 3.75 goals at odds of 1.83.
Who is the favourite for New York Red Bulls vs Orlando City SC?+
New York Red Bulls are the market favourites at 2.08, implying roughly a 48% chance. Orlando City SC are outsiders at 3.26, around 31%.
What are the odds for a draw?+
The draw is priced at 4.3 with Coolbet, which implies about a 23% probability, the lowest of the three main outcomes.
Is there any betting value in this fixture?+
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Under 3.75 goals at 1.83 actually shows a negative value edge of -4.21%, so it is a lean rather than a value bet.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 3-2 (-1.00u at flat stakes).