English ⚽ MLS 🕒 10 Sept 2026
Our tip
Under 3.5 goals
Odds
1.77
LostResult
2-2Final score
-1.00uProfit
58%Pre-match conf.
-3.28%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Matchbook
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Portland Timbers are priced at 2.2 for the win, implying roughly 45% probability and making them the market favourite over St. Louis City SC in this MLS fixture.
02
St. Louis City SC's best odds of 3.3 imply around a 30% chance of an away win, a meaningful gap behind the hosts.
03
The draw at 4.29 carries an implied probability of about 23%, yet the model's fair-price estimate of 26% suggests a 13.09% edge, flagging it as the standout value pick versus market consensus.
04
The recommended Under 3.5 goals bet at 1.71 carries an implied probability near 58.5%, slightly above the model's own 57% confidence figure, resulting in a small negative edge of -2.84%.
Team form
PT Portland Timbers LLDWD
20 Sept 26 vs Atlanta United FC 0-1
13 Sept 26 @ FC Dallas 1-2
10 Sept 26 vs St. Louis City SC 2-2
6 Sept 26 vs Minnesota United FC 5-4
23 Aug 26 @ Los Angeles FC 1-1
SLC St. Louis City SC WWDWD
20 Sept 26 vs Toronto FC 3-1
13 Sept 26 vs Minnesota United FC 4-2
10 Sept 26 @ Portland Timbers 2-2
6 Sept 26 @ Vancouver Whitecaps FC 3-1
30 Aug 26 vs FC Dallas 3-3
Head-to-head: Portland Timbers v St. Louis City SC
D 10 Sept 26
Portland Timbers 2-2 St. Louis City SCMLS
W/D/L shown from Portland Timbers's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City SC: pre-match preview
Portland Timbers head into this MLS meeting with St. Louis City SC as the clear market favourites, with the best price of 2.2 on a home win implying roughly a 45% chance of victory. St. Louis City SC, priced at 3.3, are given an implied probability of around 30%, while the draw sits out at 4.29, translating to roughly 23%. Those numbers point to a competitive but home-leaning contest rather than a lopsided one. Our model's recommended angle for this fixture actually sidesteps the result market altogether, focusing instead on Under 3.5 goals at 1.71, a price that implies a 58.5% chance of the match staying under that goal threshold. Separately, the data flags the draw as a possible value outlier compared to the model's fair-price estimate, worth noting for anyone shopping the three-way market.
Verdict: The Under 3.5 goals selection at 1.71 is the model's headline pick, backed by 57% confidence, though the -2.84% edge means it is not priced with a clear market advantage. It is a reasonable, low-drama option rather than a standout value play; the draw at 4.29 shows a larger data-driven edge for those willing to accept more risk.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 2-2, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming MLS fixtures
All MLS tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 23:00 | Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC | 1.49 | 5.80 | 6.50 |
| 24 Sept 01:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City SC | 2.82 | 4.00 | 2.48 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC | 2.35 | 3.75 | 3.23 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC | 1.53 | 5.26 | 6.30 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire | 2.38 | 3.99 | 2.85 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Minnesota United FC | 2.25 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City SC?+
Our tip was Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.77.
Who are the favourites in the Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City SC match?+
Portland Timbers are favoured by the market, with the best available odds of 2.2 implying roughly a 45% chance of a home win, compared to about 30% implied for St. Louis City SC at 3.3.
What are the odds on a draw in this MLS fixture?+
The best price on the draw is 4.29, which implies around a 23% chance, though the model's fair-value estimate of 26% suggests this outcome could carry positive value at 13.09% edge.
Is there value in betting on this Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City SC game?+
The model highlights the draw as the clearest value opportunity based on the gap between market-implied probability and fair-price estimate, while its recommended Under 3.5 goals bet at 1.71 shows only a slight negative edge of -2.84%, meaning it is a moderate rather than standout value play.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 2-2 (-1.00u at flat stakes).