English ⚽ MLS 🕒 14 Sept 2026
Our tip
San Diego FC to win
Odds
2.70
LostResult
0-5Final score
-1.00uProfit
41%Pre-match conf.
-4.93%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at LeoVegas (SE)
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Philadelphia Union hold the shortest price at 2.43, implying roughly 41% win probability and marking them the nominal market favourites.
02
San Diego FC are priced at 2.70 (about 37% implied), with the model estimating their true chance closer to 41%, creating an 11.33% value edge.
03
The draw is priced highest at 3.90, implying around 26%, making it the least backed outcome by the market.
04
No additional value picks were flagged elsewhere in the market, meaning the San Diego FC line is the standout data point from this odds set.
Team form
SDF San Diego FC LLLWL
14 Sept 26 vs Philadelphia Union 0-5
10 Sept 26 vs San Jose Earthquakes 2-3
5 Sept 26 @ Orlando City SC 0-1
23 Aug 26 vs Colorado Rapids 3-0
20 Aug 26 @ Portland Timbers 1-3
PU Philadelphia Union WWWWD
20 Sept 26 @ Sporting Kansas City 4-3
14 Sept 26 @ San Diego FC 5-0
9 Sept 26 vs FC Cincinnati 5-0
5 Sept 26 vs CF Montreal 2-0
23 Aug 26 @ Austin FC 1-1
Head-to-head: San Diego FC v Philadelphia Union
L 14 Sept 26
San Diego FC 0-5 Philadelphia UnionMLS
W/D/L shown from San Diego FC's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union: pre-match preview
San Diego FC host Philadelphia Union in an MLS fixture where the bookmakers' prices point to a fairly tight contest with a slight lean toward the visitors. Philadelphia Union are priced at 2.43, which implies a win probability of roughly 41%, while San Diego FC sit at 2.70, translating to about 37% implied probability. The draw, at 3.90, implies roughly 26%. Despite Philadelphia carrying the shorter price, the site's model flags San Diego FC as the more interesting price, estimating their true winning chance close to 41% against a market-implied 37%, producing an edge of just over 11%. That gap is the basis for the recommended bet on San Diego FC to win at 2.70, a selection built purely on the perceived mismatch between model and market, not on any guaranteed outcome.
Verdict: The recommended play is San Diego FC to win at 2.70, based on an 11.33% edge between the model's estimate and the market price. It is a moderate-risk selection since Philadelphia are still priced as favourites, so this bet leans on value rather than certainty.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 0-5, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming MLS fixtures
All MLS tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 23:00 | Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC | 1.49 | 5.80 | 6.50 |
| 24 Sept 01:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City SC | 2.82 | 4.00 | 2.48 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC | 2.35 | 3.75 | 3.23 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC | 1.53 | 5.26 | 6.30 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire | 2.38 | 3.99 | 2.85 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Minnesota United FC | 2.25 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union?+
Our tip was San Diego FC to win at odds of 2.70.
Who is favourite in San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union?+
Based on the odds, Philadelphia Union are the market favourites at 2.43, implying about a 41% win probability, compared with San Diego FC's 2.70 (about 37%).
What is the draw priced at in this MLS match?+
The draw is priced at 3.90 with LeoVegas (SE), which implies roughly a 26% chance of the match ending level.
Is there value in betting on San Diego FC?+
According to the model, yes: it estimates San Diego FC's true winning probability at about 41%, versus a market-implied 37%, giving an 11.33% edge at the 2.70 price, though this remains an uncertain outcome rather than a sure result.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 0-5 (-1.00u at flat stakes).