Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
Seattle Sounders FC are favourites at 1.88 (about 53% implied), well ahead of New York Red Bulls at 4.12 (about 24%).
The draw is priced at 4.0, an implied probability near 25%, and our model rates it slightly higher at a fair 26% for a 5.38% edge.
New York Red Bulls carry the largest value edge on the result market at 12.08%, with a fair probability of 27% against a best price of 4.12.
The recommended bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.8, carrying a 58% implied confidence and a 4.96% value edge.
Team form
Head-to-head: Seattle Sounders FC v New York Red Bulls
W/D/L shown from Seattle Sounders FC's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Seattle Sounders FC vs New York Red Bulls: pre-match preview
Seattle Sounders FC host New York Red Bulls in this MLS fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. The Sounders are priced at 1.88, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 53%, marking them as clear home favourites. New York Red Bulls sit at 4.12, implying about 24%, while the draw is offered at 4.0, worth around 25%. That is a meaningful gap between the two sides in the eyes of the bookmakers. Our model, however, does not focus on the match result here. Instead it flags Under 3.5 goals at 1.8 as the recommended play, with a market-implied confidence near 58% and a value edge of just under 5%. In short, the pricing points to a Seattle-leaning contest that may not be a high-scoring one, and the total goals line is where our numbers see the better opportunity.
Verdict: Our recommended bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.8, backed by a 58% implied confidence and a modest 4.96% edge. It is a moderate-risk pick on the total rather than the result. As with any wager, outcomes are uncertain, so stake responsibly.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 0-0, for a flat-stake return of +0.80 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming MLS fixtures
All MLS tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 23:00 | Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC | 1.49 | 5.80 | 6.50 |
| 24 Sept 01:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City SC | 2.82 | 4.00 | 2.48 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC | 2.35 | 3.75 | 3.23 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC | 1.53 | 5.26 | 6.30 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire | 2.38 | 3.99 | 2.85 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Minnesota United FC | 2.25 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
Our tip was Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.80.
Seattle Sounders FC are the favourites at 1.88, an implied probability of around 53%. New York Red Bulls are the outsiders at 4.12, roughly 24%.
The draw is best priced at 4.0 with 888sport, which implies about a 25% chance. Our model rates it marginally higher at a fair 26%.
Our model's headline pick is Under 3.5 goals at 1.8, with a 4.96% edge. On the result market, New York Red Bulls show the biggest edge at 12.08%, and the draw offers a 5.38% edge.
The tip won — final score 0-0 (+0.80u at flat stakes).