English ⚽ MLS 🕒 9 Sept 2026
Our tip
Nashville SC to win
Odds
2.36
LostResult
2-1Final score
-1.00uProfit
44%Pre-match conf.
+0.85%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at 1xBet
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Nashville SC are favoured at 2.3, implying about a 43% win probability, versus 33% for Toronto FC at 3.05.
02
The draw at 4.11 implies roughly 24% probability by the market, but the model's fair probability estimate of 27% suggests a 10.17% value edge on that outcome.
03
The recommended Under 2.5 goals selection at 2.36 carries a modelled confidence of 41%, but shows a slightly negative value edge of -2.89%, meaning the price does not fully match the model's own probability estimate.
04
Odds gaps between the three match-result outcomes indicate a moderately favoured away side rather than a heavily one-sided fixture.
Team form
TF Toronto FC LLWDW
20 Sept 26 @ St. Louis City SC 1-3
12 Sept 26 @ Orlando City SC 0-3
9 Sept 26 vs Nashville SC 2-1
5 Sept 26 vs Chicago Fire 4-4
22 Aug 26 @ Inter Miami CF 2-1
NS Nashville SC WDLDW
20 Sept 26 vs Chicago Fire 3-0
12 Sept 26 @ Inter Miami CF 2-2
9 Sept 26 @ Toronto FC 1-2
4 Sept 26 @ New York City FC 0-0
23 Aug 26 vs Columbus Crew SC 3-2
Head-to-head: Toronto FC v Nashville SC
W 9 Sept 26
Toronto FC 2-1 Nashville SCMLS
W/D/L shown from Toronto FC's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Toronto FC vs Nashville SC: pre-match preview
Toronto FC host Nashville SC in an MLS fixture where the betting market leans toward the visitors. Nashville SC are priced at 2.3 with LeoVegas, which implies a win probability of roughly 43%, making them the clear market favourite. Toronto FC sit at 3.05 (about 33% implied), while the draw is the outsider on paper at 4.11 with 1xBet, translating to a 24% implied chance. Those numbers point to a moderately one-sided contest according to the odds compilers, though not an overwhelming mismatch. Away from the result market, the site's model flags Under 2.5 goals at 2.36 as its recommended angle, carrying a modelled confidence of 41%, while a separate value scan highlights the draw as the biggest gap between market price and model-estimated fair probability.
Verdict: The model's headline pick, Under 2.5 goals at 2.36, is a plausible low-scoring lean but its own numbers show a small negative edge, so it should not be treated as a high-confidence play. The draw at 4.11 shows a more favourable statistical edge, though draws remain inherently unpredictable outcomes.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 2-1, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
L 9 Sept 26
Under 2.5 goalsfinal score 2-1
2.30 -1.00u Upcoming MLS fixtures
All MLS tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 23:00 | Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC | 1.49 | 5.80 | 6.50 |
| 24 Sept 01:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City SC | 2.82 | 4.00 | 2.48 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC | 2.35 | 3.75 | 3.23 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC | 1.53 | 5.26 | 6.30 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire | 2.38 | 3.99 | 2.85 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Minnesota United FC | 2.25 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Toronto FC vs Nashville SC?+
Our tip was Nashville SC to win at odds of 2.36.
Who is the betting favourite for Toronto FC vs Nashville SC?+
Nashville SC are favoured by the market at odds of 2.3, implying roughly a 43% chance of winning, compared to Toronto FC's 33% implied probability at 3.05.
What is the draw priced at for this MLS match?+
The best available price on the draw is 4.11 with 1xBet, which implies about a 24% probability, though the model's fair-value estimate puts it closer to 27%.
Is there value in betting on this fixture?+
According to the data, the draw shows the clearest value edge at 10.17% versus the market price, while the recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.36 actually shows a slightly negative edge of -2.89%, so it should be viewed cautiously rather than as a strong value play.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 2-1 (-1.00u at flat stakes).