English ⚽ MLS 🕒 29 Aug 2026
Our tip
New York City FC to win
Odds
2.88
VoidResult
0.00uProfit
37%Pre-match conf.
-2.37%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at LeoVegas (SE)
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Toronto FC are the favourites at 2.35 (about 43% implied), narrowly ahead of New York City FC at 2.95 (about 34%).
02
The draw is priced at 3.65, implying roughly a 27% chance, which is typical for a closely matched fixture.
03
The recommended bet, Over 2.5 goals at 1.66, carries a market-implied confidence of about 57%.
04
The value edge on the Over 2.5 pick is negative (-6.14%), signalling no measurable edge over the market price.
Team form
TF Toronto FC LLWDW
20 Sept 26 @ St. Louis City SC 1-3
12 Sept 26 @ Orlando City SC 0-3
9 Sept 26 vs Nashville SC 2-1
5 Sept 26 vs Chicago Fire 4-4
22 Aug 26 @ Inter Miami CF 2-1
NYC New York City FC LWLDD
18 Sept 26 vs New York Red Bulls 0-1
13 Sept 26 @ Real Salt Lake 2-0
10 Sept 26 vs New England Revolution 1-2
4 Sept 26 vs Nashville SC 0-0
23 Aug 26 @ New England Revolution 1-1
Head-to-head: Toronto FC v New York City FC
D 31 Jul 26
New York City FC 1-1 Toronto FCMLS
W/D/L shown from Toronto FC's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Toronto FC vs New York City FC: pre-match preview
Toronto FC host New York City FC in this MLS clash, and the market leans toward the home side. Toronto are priced at 2.35, translating to an implied probability of roughly 43%, while New York City FC sit at 2.95, or about 34%. The draw is quoted at 3.65, close to 27% in implied terms. That is a fairly narrow gap for a home favourite, suggesting the bookmakers see a competitive contest rather than a one-sided affair. Our model, however, steers away from the match-result market and toward goals. The recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.66, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 57%. Note that the value edge here is negative at -6.14%, meaning the price does not offer an edge over the market consensus. It is a lean rather than a strong value call, so treat it accordingly and stake with care.
Verdict: The model's lean is Over 2.5 goals at 1.66, backed by around 57% implied confidence. However, the -6.14% value edge means the odds offer no advantage over the market. This is a modest positional call rather than a value bet, so keep stakes measured.
How it settled: the tip was voided, for a flat-stake return of 0.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming MLS fixtures
All MLS tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 23:00 | Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC | 1.49 | 5.80 | 6.50 |
| 24 Sept 01:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City SC | 2.82 | 4.00 | 2.48 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC | 2.35 | 3.75 | 3.23 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC | 1.53 | 5.26 | 6.30 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire | 2.38 | 3.99 | 2.85 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Minnesota United FC | 2.25 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Toronto FC vs New York City FC?+
Our tip was New York City FC to win at odds of 2.88.
Who is the favourite for Toronto FC vs New York City FC?+
Toronto FC are the favourites at 2.35, implying about a 43% chance. New York City FC are the underdogs at 2.95, roughly 34%.
What are the odds on the draw?+
The draw is priced at 3.65 with LeoVegas (SE), which implies approximately a 27% probability.
Is there any betting value in this fixture?+
No value picks cleared our threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.66 actually shows a negative edge of -6.14%, so there is no measurable value over the market.
Did the tip win?+
The tip was voided (0.00u at flat stakes).